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Economic Development Analysis Journal
Published by Universitas Negeri Semarang
ISSN : 22526560     EISSN : 25022725     DOI : -
Core Subject : Economy,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance
Focus and Scope Economic Development Analysis Journal is a scientific journal who published by Department of Economic Development, Faculty of Economics, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia. this journal published four times per year on February, May, August, and November and start publishing since 2012. The journal scope is related to the research in developing countries such as a development studies, poverty adequate, inequality, unemployment studies, behavioural economics, human development problems and others economics issues. Economics Development Analysis Journal also publish an articles related to the branch of development studies, such as, industry economics, international trade, bank and financial institutions, agriculture economics, financial studies, digital economics, small and medium enterprises, and tourism economics. It also published the study of development policy such as monetary economics, public economics, macro economics, micro economics, and economics policy. Therefore, this journal also received an articles related to spatial studies such as Urban, Regional, Development planning and Rural economics. Base on the scope, Economics Development Analysis Journal welcome a multidicipline articles who related to the economics and development studies.
Arjuna Subject : Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (semua kategori) - Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (Lain-Lain)
Articles 13 Documents
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Search results for , issue "Vol 5 No 2 (2016): Economics Development Analysis Journal" : 13 Documents clear
Efektivitas Program Dana Bergulir Bagi Perkembangan Usaha Koperasi di Kota Semarang Achmad Rifky Hidayat; Rusdarti Rusdarti
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 5 No 2 (2016): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v5i2.22024

Abstract

Koperasi sebagai pelaku pembangunan ekonomi Indonesia yang sama pentingnya dengan Negara ( BUMN dan BUMD) dan Swasta. Koperasi merupakan ekonomi mikro yang manfaatnya dapat berdampak langsung bagi masyarakat. Dinas Koperasi dan UMKM Kota Semarang memiliki program untuk membantu perkembangan koperasi berupa bantuan modal yaitu dana bergulir. Sumber dana bergulir ini dari APBD Kota Semarang dengan total Rp 4.700.000.000,00. Adapun tujuan dari penelitian ini yaitu: (1) Mengetahui koperasi yang menerima dana bergulir di Kota Semarang. (2) Menganalisis deskripsi dana bergulir bagi perkembangan usaha koperasi di Kota Semarang. (3) Menganalisis mekanisme dana bergulir di Kota Semarang. (4) Menganalisis efektivitas dana bergulir bagi perkembangan usaha koperasi di Kota Semarang. Dalam penelitian ini mengunakan metode deskriptif kuantitatif. Analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis deskriptif dan analisis efektivitas dengan menggunakan LAR, PAR, dan ROI. Hasil dari analisis deskriptif melalui variable dana bergulir, partisipasi anggota, modal, volume usaha, dan SHU menunjukkan hasil yang efektif. Hasil dari analisis efektifitas dengan menggunakan LAR menunjukkan hasil tidak efektif atau ditunda. PAR dan ROI menunjukkan hasil yang efektif. Cooperatives as actors Indonesian economic development are as important as (BUMN and BUMD) and private. Cooperative is a microeconomic benefits can have a direct impact to the community. Department of Cooperatives and SMEs Semarang has a program to assist the development of the cooperative form of financial aid is a revolving fund. Source of the revolving funds from the budget of Semarang with a total of Rp 4,700,000,000.00. The purpose of this study are: (1) Knowing cooperatives that receive a revolving fund in the city of Semarang. (2) Analyzing the description of a revolving fund for the development of cooperative efforts in the city of Semarang. (3) To analyze the mechanism of revolving funds in Semarang. (4) To analyze the effectiveness of a revolving fund for the development of cooperative efforts in the city of Semarang. In this research uses descriptive quantitative method. The analysis used in this research is descriptive analysis and analysis of the effectiveness of using LAR, PAR, and ROI. Results of a descriptive analysis through the variable revolving fund, the participation of members, capital, business volume, and SHU show effective results. Results of the analysis of the effectiveness of using LAR shows the results of ineffective or delayed. PAR and ROI show effective results.
Analisis Efektivitas dan Efisiensi Retribusi Daerah di Kabupaten Pekalongan Tahun 2010-2014 Fajar Nur Hidayat; Difa Reza Pahlevi
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 5 No 2 (2016): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v5i2.22025

Abstract

Untuk mengetahui apakah Kabupaten Pekalongan sudah efektif atau efisien dalam pengelolaan retribusi daerahnya maka penulis melakukan penelitian terhadap tingkat efektifitas dan efisiensi serta bagaimana gambaran kendala dalam pemungutannya dan potensi yang mampu dikembangkan.Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah menggunakan analisis deskriptif kuantitaf dan jenis data yang digunakan berupa data time series (periode 2010-2014) dan data wawancara (berupa kuisioner dan wawancara mendalam).Hasil dari penelitian menunjukkan tingkat efektifitas yang baik dan kurangnya efisien dalam pengelolaan retribusi daerah. Implementasi pemungutan retribusi masih banyak ditemukan hambatan dalam pelaksanaannya serta masih kurangnya potensi retribusi daerah yang dapat digali dengan baik.Pemerintah Kabupaten Pekalongan diharapkan mampu meningkatkan target anggaran, juga memperketat/selektif dalam pengeluaran biaya retribusi serta pengelolaan pemungutan dilakukan secara tegas dan trasparan. Pemerintah Kabupaten juga harus mengevaluasi dan mendorong sektor retribusi yang berkembang dan terbelakang. To find out if Pekalongan have been effective or efficient in the management of a local levy, the authors conducted a study of the effectiveness and efficiency as well as how the image of the constraints in the collection and the potential that is able to be developed. The analytical method used in this research is using quantitative descriptive analysis and the type of data used in the form of time series data (2010-2014) and the interview data (in the form of questionnaires and in-depth interviews). Results from the study showed a good level of effectiveness and a lack of efficient management levies. Implementation of fee collection are still many obstacles in its implementation and the lack of potential retribution that can be explored properly. Pekalongan regency government is expected to increase the budget targets, also tighten / selective in expenses levy and collection management is done explicitly and transparently. District government should also evaluate and encourage the sector that is developing and underdeveloped retribution.
Analisis Determinan Pangsa Pasar Bank Syariah dengan Kinerja Bank Syariah di Indonesia Periode 2011-2016 Sani Noor Rohman; Karsinah Karsinah
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 5 No 2 (2016): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v5i2.22026

Abstract

Tujuan penelitian ini adalah melihat respon guncangan, dan kontribusi kinerja bank syariah dengan pangsa pasar. Program Akselerasi Pengembangan Perbankan Syariah (PAPBS) Indonesia menargetkan pangsa pasar bank syariah pada tahun 2008 adalah sebesar 5 %. Sedangkan pada tahun 2015 mencapai pangsa pasar perbankan syariah sebesar 15 %. Namun pada akhir tahun 2016 pangsa pasar masih berada pada 5,29%. Variabel penelitianya adalah Market Share (Pangsa Pasar) dengan Biaya Operasional dan Pembiayaan Operasional (BOPO), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Return Of Asset (ROA), Finance To Deposte Ratio (FDR), Non Performing Finance (NPF). Hasil analisis penelitian ini, Kinerja bank syariah menunjukkan Pangsa pasar bank syariah merespon positif terhadap varaiabel BOPO, CAR, ROA dan FDR, sedangkan variabel NPF merespon negatif, sedangkan uji Variance Decomposition variabel ROA memiliki kontribusi lebih besar dibandngkan Variabel BOPO, CAR, FDR,dan NPF. The purpose of this research is to see the relationship, shock response, and contribution of syariah bank performance with market share. The Indonesia Islamic Banking Development Acceleration Program (PAPBS) targets the market share of shariah banks in 2008 amounted to 5%. While in the year 2015 is to achieve sharia banking market share of 15%. But by the end of 2016 the market share is still at 5.29%. The research variables are Market Share with Operational Cost and Operational Financing (BOPO), Capital Adiquacy Ratio (CAR), Return Of Assets (ROA), Finance To Deposte Ratio (FDR), Non Performing Finance (NPF). The method used VAR (Vector Auto Regretion) which theoretically does not occur relationship between variables with VAR In Difference model.. Result of research is The performance of shariah banks shows that the market share of shariah banks responds positively to BOPO, CAR, ROA and FDR variables, whereas NPF variable responds negatively, while the Variance Decomposition variable of ROA has bigger contribution than BOPO, CAR, FDR, and NPF variables
Pengaruh Rata-Rata Lama Berpendidikan dan Pengeluaran Pemerintah Terhadap Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja Gambang Abdul Makna
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 5 No 2 (2016): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v5i2.22027

Abstract

Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh rata-rata lama pendidikan dan pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap penyerapan tenaga kerja, apakah koefiseien negatif ataukah positif. Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah koefisien negatif dari rata-rata lama berpendidikan adalah -37,61 yang berarti jika rata-rata lama berpendidikan naik 1% maka penyerapan tenaga kerja turun 37,61. Koefisien positif dari pengeluaran pemerintah sektor pendidikan sebesar 9,48 yang berarti jika pengeluaran pemerintah sektor pendidikan naik 1% maka penyerapan tenaga kerja naik sebesar 9,48. Koefisien positif dari pengeluaran pemerintah sektor kesehatan sebesar 1,81 yang berarti jika pengeluaran pemerintah sektor kesehatan naik sebesar 1% maka penyerapan tenaga kerja juga naik sebesar 1,81. Rata-rata lama berpendidikan. Pengeluaran pemerintah sektor pendidikan dan pengeluaran pemerintah sektor kesehatan secara bersama sama berpengaruh terhadap penyerapan tenaga kerja. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of the average length of education and government spending on employment, whether the coefficient negative or positive.Results from this study is the negative coefficient of the average length of education is -37.61 that means if the average length of education rose 1%, the employment fell 37.61. Positive coefficient of government expenditures for education sector is 9.48, which means if the government education spending rose 1%, the employment increased by 9.48. Positive coefficient of government spending health sector amounted to 1.81 which means that if the government health sector spending rose by 1% then employment also rose by 1.81. The average length of education. Government expenditure of education sector and the health sector of government spending with the same effect on employment
Analisis Makro Ekonomi Sebelum dan Sesudah Penerapan Redenominasi Mata Uang Maria Febrida; Lesta Karolina Br. Sebayang
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 5 No 2 (2016): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v5i2.22028

Abstract

Rencana redenominasi rupiah di Indonesia menjadikan pengalaman beberapa negara yang telah menerapkan redenominasi mata uang penting untuk ditinjau dari sisi makro ekonomi saat sebelum dan sesudah redenominasi sehingga menjadi dasar pertimbangan bagi Indonesia mengambil keputusan dalam rencana penerapan redenominasi rupiah. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui ada tidaknya perbedaan kondisi inflasi, nilai tukar, ekspor, penanaman modal asing (PMA) dan pertumbuhan ekonomi 1 tahun sebelum dan 1 tahun sesudah menerapkan redenominasi pada 20 negara yang telah menerapkan redenominasi. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode penelitian kuantitatif dengan alat analisis uji beda dua rata-rata sampel berpasangan. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa pada variabel nilai tukar terdapat perbedaan antara sebelum dan sesudah redenominasi yaitu nilai tukar semakin lemah setelah penerapan redenominasi, sedangkan pada variabel inflasi, ekspor, PMA, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak terdapat perbedaan sebelum dan sesudah redenominasi. Rupiah redenomination which planned by Indonesia make the experience of countries that have implemented the currency redenomination is important to be reviewed in terms of macroeconomic before and after the redenomination so that it becomes a basic consideration for Indonesia to take decisions in the plan of implementation rupiah redenomination. The purpose of this study is to determine whether there is difference in the conditions of inflation, exchange rate, exports, foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in the current 1 year before and 1 year after implementing the redenomination in the 20 countries that have implemented the currency redenomination. This study used a quantitative method, with analysis dependent sample t-test which showed that there is a difference between before and after redenomination in exchange rate variable is getting weaker after the implementation of the redenomination, while there is no difference before and after the redenomination in inflation, exports, FDI, and economic growth.
Determinan Permintaan Uang Di Indonesia Tahun 2005.Q1-2014.QIV: Pendekatan ECM Muhammad Hardeo Awang
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 5 No 2 (2016): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v5i2.22029

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh variabel PDB, Indeks Harga Konsumen, Suku Bunga Pinjaman, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan dan Nilai tukar (Kurs) terhadap Permintaan Uang (M1) di Indonesia. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa dalam estimasi jangka pendek variabel PDB memiliki hubungan positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Sementara dalam jangka panjang PDB memiliki hubungan positif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Variabel IHK dalam jangka pendek memiliki hubungan positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Sementara dalam jangka panjang IHK memiliki hubungan positif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Variabel Suku bunga pinjaman dalam jangka pendek memiliki hubungan negatif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Sementara dalam jangka panjang Suku bunga pinjaman memiliki hubungan negatif dan tidak signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Variabel IHSG dalam jangka pendek memiliki hubungan positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Sementara dalam jangka panjang IHSG memiliki hubungan positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Variabel Nilai tukar dalam jangka pendek memiliki hubungan positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Sementara dalam jangka panjang Nilai tukar memiliki hubungan positif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). This study aimed to analyze the influence of variables GDP, Consumer Price Index, Lending Rate, JCI and the exchange rate to Demand Money (M1) in Indonesia in the short term and long term from 2005 to 2014. The analysis showed that in the short term estimates of GDP variable has a positive and significant relationship to the demand for money (M1). While in the long term GDP has a positive and significant relationship to the demand for money (M1). Variables CPI in the short term have a positive relationship and no significant effect on the demand for money (M1). While in the long term CPI has a positive and significant relationship to the demand for money (M1). The variable lending rate in the short term have a negative and significant relationship to the demand for money (M1). While long-term lending rate has a negative correlation and no significant effect on the demand for money (M1). JCI variable in the short term have a positive relationship and no significant effect on the demand for money (M1). While in the long term JCI has a positive and significant relationship to the demand for money (M1). Variable exchange rate in the short term have a positive relationship and no significant effect on the demand for money (M1). While in the long run exchange rate has a positive and significant relationship to the demand for money (M1)
Strategi Pengembangan Tanaman Pangan Guna Meningkatkan Perekonomian Kabupaten Kebumen Myfa Nurul Setyaningtyas
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 5 No 2 (2016): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v5i2.22030

Abstract

Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk membahas mengenai kinerja subsektor tanaman pangan dan strategi dan kriteria program yang diprioritaskan untuk mengembangkan usahatani tanaman pangan di Kabupaten Kebumen .Jenis penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah penelitian deskriptif. jenis data dalam penelitian ini menggunakan jenis data sekunder dan primer. Kontribusi PDRB paling tinggi di Kabupaten Kebumen adalah sektor pertanian khususnya subsektor tanaman pangan. Namun dari tahun ketahun distribusi subsektor tanaman pangan menurun. Pada tahun 2009 kontribusi tanaman pangan sebesar 26,65% menurun menjadi 23,66% pada tahun 2013. Padahal pemerintah Kabupaten Kebumen mempunyai visi “Kebumen yang Mandiri dan Sejahtera Berbasis Agribisnis”. Penelitian ini menggunakan data primer melalui instrumen kuesioner dan wawancara sebanyak 35 orang dengan 10 key person dan menggunakan data sekunder yaitu instansi terkait dan literatur buku. Penelitian ini menggunakan Analisis Hierarki Proses (AHP).Hasil analisis AHP menunjukkan terpilihnya aspek budidaya (nilai bobot 0,311) sebagai prioritas utama dalam pengembangan tanaman pangan di Kabupaten Kebumen. Sedangkan strategi yang diutamakan adalah pendampingan kepada petani untuk menerapkan teknologi budidaya tanaman pangan yang tepat. The purpose of this study is to discuss the performance of food crop sub-sector and strategy and criteria of the prioritized program to develop food crop farming in Kebumen District. The type of research used in this research is descriptive research. the type of data in this study using secondary and primary data types. GNP contributions highest in Kebumen is the agricultural sector, especially food crops. But from year to year, the distribution of food crops declined. In 2009 the contribution of food crops amounted to 26.65% decreased to 23.66% in 2013. Where as the government of Kebumen has a vision "Kebumen an Independent and Prosperous Based Agribusiness".This research uses primary data through questionnaire and interview as many as 35 people with 10 key persons and the use of secondary data that is relevant agencies and literature books. This study uses Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). AHP analysis results showed the election of aspects of culture (the weight value 0.311) as a top priority in the development of food crops in Kebumen. While the preferred strategy is the assistance to farmers to implement crop cultivation technology right
Implementasi Community Development Bidang Pendidikan dalam Meningkatkan Kualitas SDM dan Mengatasi Kemiskinan Eddy Cahyadi; Reta Yudistyana
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 5 No 2 (2016): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v5i2.22031

Abstract

Penelitian ini memiliki beberapa tujuan yaitu mengidentifikasi model implementasi program Community Development bidang pendidikan yang dilakukan PT Badak NGL dan mengidentifikasi dampak implementasi program Community Development bidang pendidikan tersebut. Jenis penelitian ini adalah penelitian kualitatif dengan metode analisis deskriptif. Sumber data yang digunakan adalah primer dan sekunder. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa program Community Development bidang pendidikan yang dilakukan oleh PT Badak NGL adalah pemberian beasiswa penuh untuk siswa SMP, SMA, dan Perguruan Tinggi serta beasiswa untuk mahasiswa LNG Academy; peduli pendidikan di daerah terisolir dengan membuat boarding community untuk siswa dari daerah terisolir agar dapat mengikuti Ujian Akhir Nasional; dan program peningkatan kualitas guru dengan memberikan pelatihan kepada guru. Program-program tersebut dilaksanakan oleh PT Badak NGL sebagai bentuk tanggung jawab dan peran serta PT Badak NGL mewujudkan masyarakat yang berdaya, mengurangi tingkat kemiskinan, dan turut dalam proses pembangunan yang berkelanjutan. This research aims to determine the implementation of Community Development education model conducted by PT Badak NGL, and to identified Community Development program implementation effect in education sector. The research type is qualitative research with descriptive analysis methods with data sources of primary and secondary data. The research results indicate that Community Development education program given by PT Badak NGL is a full scholarship awarding scholarships for junior high school students, high schools and universities as well as scholarships for students of the Academy of LNG; care about education in remote areas by creating a community for boarding students from remote areas in order to follow the National Exam; and programs to improve the quality of teachers by providing training to teachers. The programs were implemented by PT Badak NGL as a form of responsibility of PT Badak NGL in the role of PT Badak NGL realize empowered community, reduce poverty and contribute in the process of sustainable development.
The Analysis of Economic Development GAP Between Regencies in Central Java Provinces Panji Irawan Yogyadipratama; P. Eko Prasetyo
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 5 No 2 (2016): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v5i2.22032

Abstract

The purpose of this study were (1) to know how the development level of inequality of economic development in Central Java Province according to Williamson Index; (2) determine the extent of the influence of the labor force to the level of economic development of Central Java Province; and (3) know how to influence the allocation of development aid districts / cities to the economic development of Central Java province. This research is a quantitative research used panel data, time series data (years 2002-2011) and cross section (35 districts / cities in Central Java province). The data used in this research is secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The analytical method used is the method of multiple linear regression analysis of panel data with FEM methods used tools Eviews 7 software. Results of the study is to show (1) the economic development gaps between regions in Central Java province which is calculated using Williamson index during the period 2008-2011 showed a widening inequality; (2) the allocation of development aid from the central government uneven and areas that receive aid are too large can increase the level of inequality between regions. This is due to the construction of concentrated to areas that are already developed than areas that are still lagging behind, because the area is developed better facilities from areas not yet developed; and (3) R2 value of 0.9949 means variable variation inequality of economic development in Central Java province can be explained by variables of the labor force and the allocation of regional development funds amounting to 95.5% while the remaining 0.05% is explained by other factors outside the model
Analisis Persistensi Inflasi Jawa Tengah Poppy Erviyana
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 5 No 2 (2016): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v5i2.22033

Abstract

Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah Untuk mengukur dan mengetahui tingkat persistensi inflasi umum serta menghitung dan mengetahui jangka waktu yang diperlukan untuk kembali ke tingkat alamiahnya.Variabel dalam penelitian ini yaitu inflasi umum Jawa Tengah periode tahun 2008 hingga 2013. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah model autoregressive. Berdasarkan penelitian diperoleh hasil olah data menggunakan Eviews 6 dapat diketahui bahwa persistensi inflasi umum di Jawa Tengah tergolong tinggi yaitu 0.85. Serta waktu yang dibutuhkan inflasi untuk kembali ke tingkat alamiahnya yaitu selama 6 bulan. Adapun saran dari penelitian ini antara lain diharapkan melalui Tim Pengendali Inflasi Daerah (TPID) terdapat semacam kebijakan yang bisa mengontrol inflasi agar efek shock dapat diantisipasi yaitu dengan membuat lalu lintas produksi dan distribusi khusus kelompok komoditas penyusun inflasi yang dihubungkan per Kabupaten Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Untuk mengantisipasi efek shock akibat cuaca ekstrem, dapat melakukan kerja sama dengan Badan Meteorologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) dalam hal monitoring dan peramalan cuaca sebagai bahan perumusan kebijakan tersebut. The aim of this research is to measure and determine the level of general inflation then calculate and determine the duration needed to diminish to the natural level. The variable in this research is general inflation in Central Java from 2008 to 2013. The method used is the model of autoregressive time series. Based on the results of the research using Eviews 6, the data showed that persistence of general inflation in Central Java is high, it is 0.85. As well as the time required to diminish the inflation back to natural level requires long time, they are 6 months. The suggestion from this study are expected through Inflation Control Team Regional (TPID) make some kind of policy that could control the inflation of foodstuffs in order to effect the shock can be anticipated that by making the traffic production and distribution of specialty food commodity linked per regency of Central Java province. To anticipate the effects of shock as a result of extreme weather may cooperate with the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) in monitoring and weather forecasting as an ingredient of the policy formulation.

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