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Economic Journal of Emerging Markets
Published by Universitas Islam Indonesia
ISSN : 20863128     EISSN : 2502180x     DOI : -
Core Subject : Economy,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance
The Economic Journal of Emerging Markets (EJEM) is a peer-reviewed journal which provides a forum for scientific works pertaining to emerging market economies. Published every April and October, this journal welcomes original research papers on all aspects of economic development issues. The journal is fully open access for scholarly readers.
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Search results for , issue "Volume 18 Issue 1, 2026" : 10 Documents clear
The role of women in empowering economic prosperity through domestic credit in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Ngollo, Magwana Ibrahim; Mwombeki, Frank Arbogast; Mwenda, Beny Benjamin
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 1, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss1.art5

Abstract

Purpose — This study examines the symbiotic relationship between women's representation in parliament and domestic credit, and the direct and indirect pathways by which these factors influence economic prosperity in Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries.Methods — Panel data from 16 SADC countries over the period 1997 -2022 are analysed using Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) and Generalised Structural Equation Modelling (GSEM), with a focus on the examination of interaction effects and diminishing returns of women’s parliamentary representation and domestic credit on economic prosperity.Findings — The results indicate that women’s representation in parliament has a significant positive effect on economic prosperity, with the effect strengthened by domestic credit. Domestic credit also contributes indirectly to economic growth by enhancing women’s economic influence.Implication — These findings provide important insights for policymakers, highlighting the need for a balanced strategy that promotes both women’s political participation and financial inclusion while avoiding potential economic imbalances.Originality — This study contributes to the literature by integrating gender, finance, and economic growth within the SADC context and by uncovering indirect pathways through which domestic credit affects economic prosperity via women’s political empowerment.
The effect of economic complexity on income levels across countries: A dynamic panel quantile approach Hamdan, Mohd Lokman; Azman-Saini, Wan Ngah Wan; Bani, Yasmin; Rosland, Anitha
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 1, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss1.art7

Abstract

Purpose — This study investigates the impact of economic complexity on income levels across countries at different stages of economic development, with particular emphasis on how these effects vary across the income distribution. Method — A dynamic panel quantile regression approach is employed to analyse panel data from 115 countries over the period 1995–2020. GDP per capita is used as a proxy for income, allowing the analysis to capture heterogeneous effects across different quantiles of income distribution. The key control variables include human capital, population, trade openness, institutional quality, and inflation.Findings — The results reveal significant heterogeneity in the effects of economic complexity across income levels. Economic complexity has a positive and significant impact on income at higher quantiles, indicating that more advanced economies benefit from increased productive capabilities. Conversely, at lower quantiles, the effect is negative, suggesting that less-developed countries are unable to fully capitalise on rising complexity. Implications — The findings suggest that policy strategies should be tailored to different stages of development. Low-income countries need to enhance skill formation and structural transformation to benefit from complexity, while high-income countries should focus on innovation and diversification. Strengthening human capital and institutional quality is essential to mitigating the effects of inequality. Originality — This study contributes to the literature by highlighting the heterogeneous effects of economic complexity using a dynamic panel quantile framework, offering new insights into income differences across development levels, an aspect largely overlooked in previous research.
Modelling the impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) trade, economic complexity and energy structure on carbon neutrality: Evidence from BRICS Singh, Neharika; Gupta, Meenakshi
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 1, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss1.art4

Abstract

Purpose — This study investigates the impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) trade flow components, specifically ICT service exports, ICT goods exports, and ICT goods imports, alongside economic complexity and renewable energy share on carbon emissions.Methodology — A panel of BRICS countries from 2000 to 2022 is estimated using a second-generation cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) model that accounts for cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity across countries. Findings — Gross domestic product per capita and economic complexity are positively associated with carbon emissions. ICT trade flows have heterogeneous effects on emissions. ICT services, exports, and renewable energy consumption significantly reduce carbon emissions. However, ICT goods exports and imports have an insignificant effect on carbon emissions.Implications — The results suggest that the BRICS countries must emphasise policy measures that promote the export of ICT services, accelerate renewable energy adoption, and promote industrial transformation policies towards sustainable production practices.Originality — This study focuses on supply-side ICT trade channels and disaggregates them into ICT goods exports, imports, and service exports. Furthermore, this study applies second-generation estimation techniques that are robust to cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity
Do monetary policy and macroeconomic fundamentals matter under high uncertainty? Evidence from Renminbi exchange rate regimes Zhang, Mengdi; Chin, Lee; Wan Ngah Wan, Azman Saini
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 1, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss1.art3

Abstract

Purpose — This study examines the nonlinear effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on China’s Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate. Methods — Based on the monetary model of exchange rate determination and the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate model, a threshold autoregressive model was estimated with EPU as the threshold variable. Quarterly data from Q1 2005 to Q4 2023 were utilised. Finding — Under different regimes, the effects of EPU, monetary factors, and macroeconomic factors on the exchange rate are nonlinear. The study also reveals significant differences in the volatility characteristics of exchange rate misalignment under low and high EPU conditions, supporting the hypothesis that EPU has a nonlinear impact on the exchange rate. Furthermore, when EPU is low, external shocks exert a stronger impact on the exchange rate than when EPU is high. Implications — These results suggest that governments and policymakers can help investors anticipate market shifts by increasing policy transparency and reducing unnecessary policy changes, thereby maintaining economic stability.Originality — By integrating EPU into a framework combining the monetary model and the BEER model and estimating a nonlinear threshold model, this study provides new evidence on exchange rate dynamics and misalignment under varying EPU regimes
Globalisation and growth in Turkiye: Is there a verdict? Napari, Ayuba; Vergil, Hasan; Kaplan, Muhittin; Khan, Asad Ul Islam
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 1, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss1.art8

Abstract

Purpose — Theoretically, the impact of globalisation is ambiguous, and the empirical evidence inconclusive. This study aims to conclusively determine the effects of the various dimensions of globalisation on Turkey’s economic growth.Method — The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework to estimate both short-run and long-run effects of globalisation. Globalisation is measured using the KOF Globalisation Index, disaggregated into de jure, de facto, economic, social, and political dimensions. Human capital is proxied by the Human Development Index (HDI), while physical capital is captured by gross fixed capital formation as a percentage of GDP.Findings — The results based on the aggregate globalisation index reveal a positive and significant long-run effect of globalisation on Turkey’s economic growth. However, neither short-run nor long-run effects are observed when aggregate de jure and de facto globalisation indices are used. Furthermore, economic and social globalisation exert a significant negative impact on GDP growth in the short run, though no long-run effects are detected.Implications — The findings suggest that while globalisation can support long-term economic growth, its short-term effects—particularly through economic and social channels—may pose adjustment challenges that require appropriate policy responses.Originality/value — This study contributes to the globalisation–growth literature by providing a comprehensive, disaggregated analysis of globalisation in Turkey using a long time series and the ARDL approach.
Asymmetric return dynamics and stock price crash risk: Evidence from a quantile regression analysis of an emerging market Arif, Unbreen; Ahmad, Bilal; Rizvi, Fizza; Azhar, Sarah
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 1, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss1.art9

Abstract

Purpose — Understanding extreme downside risk is particularly important in emerging equity markets, where higher market volatility, lower liquidity, and weaker information environments make stock prices more vulnerable to sudden, severe crashes. This study examines downside risk, stock price crash risk, and lower-tail return dynamics using firm-level stock return data for firms listed in the Pakistan Stock Exchange over the period 2014–2024. Method — Using panel regression and quantile regression techniques, the study investigates the determinants of crash risk and assesses the predictive role of downside risk for future equity returns. Findings — The results indicate that downside risk is strongly associated with a higher likelihood of extreme negative return realisations, while its effect on average returns remains limited. Quantile-based estimates further show that the impact of downside risk intensifies substantially in the lower tail of the return distribution, highlighting pronounced return asymmetries. These patterns persist across both financial and non-financial firms, although their magnitude varies with market conditions. Implications — The results carry important implications for investors, regulators, and risk managers concerned with downside protection and the identification of early warning signals in emerging equity markets.Originality — This study provides new firm-level evidence from an emerging equity market by jointly examining downside risk, crash risk, and return tail behaviour within a unified empirical framework by using quantile regression.
Economic uncertainty, monetary uncertainty and money demand in Pakistan: An asymmetrical analysis Mukhtar, Tahir; Adnan, Saira; Jehan, Zainab
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 1, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss1.art2

Abstract

Purpose — Adopting an asymmetric approach, this study analyses the impact of economic and monetary uncertainties on money demand within an open-economy framework for Pakistan. Its primary objective is to assess whether the positive and negative components of each type of uncertainty deliver a differential impact on money demand. Methods — The study employs the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) framework to examine the long-run and short-run money demand function over the period 1975–2024.Findings — The results reveal distinct asymmetric effects. Rising economic uncertainty (VY) decreases money demand, while a decline in economic uncertainty has a positive but comparatively weaker effect. Conversely, increasing monetary uncertainty (VM) drives up demand, while a decline in monetary uncertainty reduces money demand. These findings suggest that for the positive component of VY, the substitution effect dominates the precautionary effect; however, as VM increases, the precautionary effect overwhelms the substitution effect. The overall findings also indicate that agents are more sensitive to real sector volatility than to monetary volatility. Moreover, the exchange rate, along with traditional determinants, significantly influences short- and long-run money demand. Implication — The results suggest that monetary authorities should consider the source and sign of uncertainty shocks to properly anticipate liquidity needs and achieve monetary stability. Originality — This study is the first of its kind in Pakistan to explore the asymmetric relationship among economic volatility, monetary volatility, and money demand within an open-economy framework
The economic consequences of single motherhood on children’s cognitive outcomes in Indonesia Nugroho, Wisnu Setiadi; Afifah, Evi Noor; Perdana, Andika Ridha Ayu; Syarifah, Zahra Amaila
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 1, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss1.art10

Abstract

Purpose — Single motherhood is widely associated with poorer child outcomes, yet it remains unclear whether these disadvantages stem from family structure itself or from the economic shocks that accompany it. This distinction is particularly important in developing-country contexts, where weak social protection and labor market informality may amplify both channels. We examine how different pathways into single motherhood affect children’s cognitive development.Methods — We use longitudinal data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) and employ Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to estimate both direct and indirect effects of maternal marital status on children’s cognitive outcomes, while controlling for demographic and household characteristics.Findings — The results show that children in single-mother households, particularly those experiencing divorce, have lower cognitive scores. Poverty plays a key mediating role, as higher poverty levels are associated with worse cognitive outcomes. Households headed by divorced individuals exhibit higher poverty, while the effect of widowhood is smaller and not statistically significant. In addition, larger household size and greater distance from economic centers increase poverty, whereas higher education of the household head and per capita expenditure reduce it.Implication — The findings suggest that policies targeting single-mother households should address both economic vulnerability and structural constraints, including limited access to services and unequal labor market opportunities.Originality — This paper contributes to the limited longitudinal literature in developing countries by comparing divorce and widowhood and their roles in perpetuating intergenerational disadvantages through economic and non-economic channels.
Global economic policy uncertainty and fiscal responses in emerging markets: A dynamic error-correction panel Alsubaie, Ali
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 1, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss1.art1

Abstract

Purpose — This study examines how global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) shapes government expenditure dynamics in emerging market economies. Methods — Using an annual panel of 28 emerging economies from 1998 to 2023, this study analyzes short-run fiscal adjustments and long-run equilibrium relationships between global uncertainty and public expenditure. To address challenges arising from mixed integration orders and cross-sectional dependence driven by global shocks, it employs a multistage empirical strategy that combines fixed-effects estimation, Driscoll–Kraay robust inference, and a cross-sectionally augmented dynamic error-correction model (ECM).Findings — The results provide robust evidence that higher GEPU is associated with higher government expenditure as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This relationship holds across alternative specifications and persists in the long run, indicating that fiscal responses to uncertainty are not purely transitory. Dynamic estimates reveal a statistically significant error-correction mechanism, confirming a stable long-term relationship among government expenditure, global uncertainty, and domestic economic conditions. Structural factors, particularly urbanization, further shape fiscal outcomes, whereas income per capita enters with a negative sign, though its effect is not consistently statistically significant across specifications.Implication — The findings have important implications for fiscal sustainability and policy design in an increasingly uncertain global environment.Originality — By explicitly accounting for non-stationarity and unobserved common global factors, this study contributes to the literature by providing new evidence of how emerging market governments respond to global risks.
Public debt dynamics and real exchange rate volatility: Evidence from South Africa Tyani, Yonela; Mbaleki, Chuma; Nodo, Asive
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 1, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss1.art6

Abstract

Purpose — This paper examines the relationship between South Africa’s rising public debt and real exchange rate (RER) volatility. Over the past two decades, the country has experienced an alarming increase in external and domestic debt levels, accompanied by episodes of exchange rate instability and deteriorating economic performance. Method — Using annual data from 2000 to 2024, we estimate an ARDL model to assess the nexus between debt and exchange rate volatility. Findings — The results suggest that public debt is a significant driver of exchange rate volatility and rand depreciation. However, interest rates, inflation, and trade openness are key factors responsible for significant fluctuations in the exchange rate in South Africa. Similar results are obtained in both the short-run and long-run estimation.Implications — The paper recommends firm government controls designed to prevent sharp capital movements (inflows or outflows) that could destabilise the rand. This can be achieved by maintaining a favourable trade balance, targeting inflation, and adjusting monetary policy. Secondly, the government can diversify the composition of its debt currency. This helps reduce volatility in debt-servicing payments and further stabilises government budgets and fiscal planning.Originality — There is little empirical literature on the direct relationship between public debt and real exchange rate volatility in South Africa. This study aims to fill the gap by providing a novel empirical assessment of the long- and short-run dynamics between rising public debt and real exchange rate volatility.

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