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Agro Ekonomi

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Published by Universitas Gadjah Mada

ISSN : 02158787 EISSN : 25411616 DOI : -

Core Subject : Economy, Agriculture,

Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Economics, Econometrics & Finance

AE is a media for dissemination information of thinking and research from lecturers, researchers, students, and practitioners who are interest to produce the scientific work in the agricultural and natural resource policies, agribusiness and agricultural extension & communication sciences. The focus and scopes of the articles in this journal are : (1) The macro approach of agricultural socio economic as a system which comprehensive and integrated from subsystems up-stream, subsystems on-farm, subsystems down-stream, subsystems support and the impact of their interrelationships with government policy, international economics, agricultural marketing, environmental resources, agricultural extension and communication, agricultural sociology, farmer institutions, and community empowerment; (2) The micro approach includes the study in the development of agribusiness (finance, farm management, functional and technical aspects) and agricultural local institutional.

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Articles 7 Documents

Search results for , issue "Vol 10, No 1 (2003): JUNI 2003" : 7 Documents clear

Analysis of Maize Production Efficiency In River Basin Masdjidin Siregar
Agro Ekonomi Vol 10, No 1 (2003): JUNI 2003
Publisher : Department of Agricultural Socio-Economics Faculty of Agriculture Universitas Gadjah Mada

Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengestimasi jimgsi produhifrontier stokastik dolam produhi jagung di DAS Brantas don menyajikan distribusi petani menurut efisiensi tersebut. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa rataan ejisiensi teknis produhi jagung adolah 74%. Dari satu sisi, ini berarti bahwa peluang untuk meningkatkan produksi jagung masih terbuka. Tetapi dori sisi yang lain, karena petani telah menggunakan kapasi/as managerial yang cukup linggi untuk mencapai tingkal efisiensi tersebul, maka peningkalan kapasilas managerial tersebur menjadi lebih sulil lanpa perbaikan teknologi yang nyala. Hasil eSlimasi menunjukkan bahwa pupuk tidok berpengaruh terhadap produhi. Oleh karena itu perbaikan teknohJgi yang segera dapat dilakukan adalah perimbangan jumlah pupuk yang digunakan berdasarkan verifikasi lokal yang sebaiknya segera dilahanakan di seluruh DAS tersebut.

The Rationality Of Economic Forecasts: The Cases Of Rubber, Oil Palm, Forestry And Mining Sector Muzafar Shah Habibullah
Agro Ekonomi Vol 10, No 1 (2003): JUNI 2003
Publisher : Department of Agricultural Socio-Economics Faculty of Agriculture Universitas Gadjah Mada

Forecasts of economic variables is very important for planning and policy making purposes. Forecasts is an important input in decision making processes because obtaining reliable forecasts of some relevant macroeconomic variables is necessary for efficient management of funds, time and resources.Business has always recognised the need for a view of the future and has used explicit forecasts in the design and execution of their economic andJor business policies. For example, a firm trying to decide upon its investment programme will have to take into account not only the current known set of circumstances but also the unknown economic and business conditions in the future. The firm has to form a view about the future, such as the likely sales, costs, prices, competitors' reactions, labour requirements, government regulations and so on. These views about the future values of economic variables are frequently referred to as 'expectations', that is, what the firm expects to happen in the future.In recent years the performances of many microeconomics and macroeconomics series have been erratic. For example, rate of inflation, price of crude oil, prices of primary commodities, rate of interest and other pertinent economic variables have been fluctuating widely and have caused concern among the public, politicians, economists and also the businessmen. According to Mayes (l 981), with such non-uniformity of economic variables observed in the last two decades, the role of expectations has become more relevant in the economic agents' decision making process. Mayes (1981) further states that under the present conditions it has become more important to consider what expectations actually are and how they are formed.The value of economic forecasts of certain macroeconomic variables can be derived from several methods. The three main methods for deriving economic forecasts are (i) time series, (ii) econometric models, and (iii) survey of intentions of concerned agents and organizations. Time seriesanalysis and econometric modeling are the two most widely used methods in economic forecasting, but Holden and Peel (1983) had noted their drawbacks. Recently, economists have turned their direction of interest in evaluating the rationality of economic forecasts from surveys of market participants. The empirical literature on the direct tests of the rational expectations hypothesis is vast and growing. Holden et al. (1985), Lovell (1986), Wallis (1989), Maddala (1991) and Pesaran (1991) had reviewed some of these studies. The aim was to determine whether survey data on economic forecasts are accurate in the Muth's (1961) sense, that is, whether participating economic agents used all available information at the time forecasts are made. in other words, the rational expectations hypothesis of the economic forecast was put to test. In general, the empirical studies do not support the rational expectations hypothesis.Most of the studies carried out to evaluate the rationality of business firms' forecasts of economic variables were conducted on developed nations. Madsen (1993) studies the formation of output expectations in manufacturing industry in Japan, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom. He found that the rational expectations hypothesis was weakly rejected. Williams (1988) and Chazelas (1988) found investment forecasts biased predictors of the actual investment value for firms in the United Kingdom and France. Meganck et a!. (1988) have concluded that investment forecasts of the manufacturing firm in Belgium were unbiased predictors of the actual values. However. Daub (1982) failed to find any rationality of the Canadian capital investment intention survey data. On the other hand. a study by Leonard (1982) on employment forecasts by the United States services sectors found that the forecasts were biased and the rationality of these employment forecasts rejected.The purpose of this paper is to present some empirical evidence on the rationality of agricultural firm managers' expectations using survey data. This study is important because it adds to the current literature on the testing of rationality of survey data, in particular, it provides empirical evidence from the perspective of a developing country. As for the country under study, the finding of the study could establish whether the forecasts documented by such survey are accurate or not; and if not, ways to produce more accurate forecasts must be found. 'Rationality' in this paper means that managers in agricultural firms have unbiased expectations and efficiently utilised available information at the time the forecasts are made.

Dampak Krisis Ekonomi Terhadap Kinerja Industri Susu Segar Dalam Negeri = The Impact of Economic Crisis Toword The Performence of Domestic Dairy Industry Dewa K.S Swastika; Nyak Ilham; Ikin Sadikin
Agro Ekonomi Vol 10, No 1 (2003): JUNI 2003
Publisher : Department of Agricultural Socio-Economics Faculty of Agriculture Universitas Gadjah Mada

The Indonesian Dairy Industry wa.s well developed until mid 1997, due to some government protective policies, such as credit far imported dam cattle. and domestic market security. (;orernment determined the Milk Ratio (the ratio between domestic fresh milk and imported milk) that should he satisfied/ by the multinational milk processors (IPS) to run their milk processing lactories. However, the domestic .fresh milk production was not sufficient to meet the raw material far their Jactories. Therefore, in 1996, about 67% of raw materials has w he imported, especially from Australia and New Zealand, At least there were m.o/actors resulting a high import of dairy product. First, the domestic dairy production capacity was limited: second the Indonesian dairy industry was considered as inefficient, so that the price of domesticfresh milk was claimed to be more expensive compared to imported milk. The economic crisis starting from mid 1997, resulting in a high price of imported dairy cattle and feed. On the other hand, this crisis also resulting in a significant increase in price of imported milk. Therefore, the demand for domestic fresh milk by IPS was significantly increased The observations in 6 milk cooperatives (in East and West Java) showed that since economic crisis, all fresh milk offered by all cooperatives to IPS was absorbed. Even IPS provided some incentives (higher price and bonus).* the farmers who have a better quality of milk. There was also price adjustment given by IPS from about Rp. 600 hr in 1996 97 to about Rp. 900 and then about Rp. 1100 ltr in 1998 99. However, the farmers was still complaining. because if they compare milk price to rice price, they recognize that before crisis I liter milk was equivalent to 0.6 kg rice, but after crisis 1 liter milk was equivalent to only 0.4 kg rice. The most important issue that should be anticipated is that "if exchange rate of Rupiah to US Dollar is increased, then imported milk will be cheaper, and IPS will tend to import milk rather than buying domestic fresh milk If this case is happening, it will be a nightmare to farmers who do dairy farm. Therefore, the development and transfer of the more efficient technology in dairy industry should be given a high priority.

Pengaruh globalisasi terhadap ketahanan pangan nasional Sri Widodo
Agro Ekonomi Vol 10, No 1 (2003): JUNI 2003
Publisher : Department of Agricultural Socio-Economics Faculty of Agriculture Universitas Gadjah Mada

The problem on food security in Indonesia began to be interested since the economic crisis as one component of the social security net. Sustainable food security covers: availability of food, accessibility, utilization, stability, self reliance (autonomy) and sustainability. . Hirarchically food security can be at global order, regional, national, local, household and individual. The higher order offbod security is a necessary condition but not sufficient condition for the lower order.Economic theory indicate that there are gains to be made from free trade. increase the efficiency ufresource allocation, and increase welfare of all countries. However, all government, without exception, intervene to varying degrees in the working of natural market prces, with the reason the need to protect infant industry, to ensure food security, to redistribute income, and to enhance income of small producers.The liberalization initiatives culminated in UR agreement and WTO, among others, dismantling of quantitative restriction and subsidies as well as other nontariff barriers, but there were several new thing of antidumping tariff, sanitary and phytosanitary, technical barrier to trade,environment, and genetically modified organism.The impact of trade liberalization on exporter countries, in general, would benefit the producers, decrease the consumer surplus, and increase social welfare except large populated as India and China. The impact of importer countries depend on the policy of each country. Malaysia and Indonesia by decreasing import tariff policy would increase consumer surplus and social welfare but sacrificing the producers/farmers.National food policies consist of international trade policy domestic price policy, and policy on production efficiency. The international trade policy means to protect producers, consumers, and social welfare from the uncertainty of international market especially in the long run. The stabilization of domestic price policy needs inter department coordination and STE to implement. Protection could result inefficiency but it is needed for commodities those are not ready to compete and to protect from unfair trade, to protect farmers and long run food security.

Analisis Peremajaan Optimum Karet Rubber Optimal Replanting Analysis ( Studi Kasus di Kebun Musi Landas Sumatera Selatan) Tirta Jaya Jenahar
Agro Ekonomi Vol 10, No 1 (2003): JUNI 2003
Publisher : Department of Agricultural Socio-Economics Faculty of Agriculture Universitas Gadjah Mada

The case study on rubber replanting in Musi Landas, South Sumatra shows that both, Sutardi formula (1973) and Jenahar's (1986) provide the some economic live which is 25 years for the area of 2577 ha with replanted area of 103,08 ha per year. The result shows attaints that the net present value (NPV) is Rp.1.6 nillion per ha with the investment payback period of 17 years and the internal rate of return (IRR) 16.15 % per year.The method used in this research is optimum replanting analysis method. The analical method shows that the cash flow method developed by Jenahar (1986) is simpler than Sutardi's marginal method (1973) and gives similar result in term of the rubber tree's economic life. However, the cash flow formula could be used for feasibility assessment

Major Issues And Challenges For Improving The Marketing And Distribution Of Agricultural Products Kaman Nainggolan
Agro Ekonomi Vol 10, No 1 (2003): JUNI 2003
Publisher : Department of Agricultural Socio-Economics Faculty of Agriculture Universitas Gadjah Mada

Agribisnis masih merupakan sektor ekonomi yang peming di banyak negara mempunvai kontribusi yang hesar dalam PDB, penyerapan tenaga kerja clan penerimaan devisa ekspor.Sebagai basil globalisasi ekonomi dan liberalisasi pasar. pelt:ring pasar komoditas pertanian akan lehih hesar bagi produk yang kompetitif. twerp' menciptakan pesaing yang semakin banyak, dan semakin tinggi sfendar kualitas yang diminta. Pemasaran dan distribrai merupakan salah sant masalah kompleks. Oleh sebab itu pemerintah dan para pengusaha perlu mencari memperhaiki sistim pemasaran dan Astern di.strilm.si yang handal untuk meningkaikan daya saing.Tantangan dimasa depan yang dihadapi para pengusaha adalah : menghasilkan produk dengan kualitas super. pasar yang dinamis. .jaringern distribusi pemasaran yang handal, pengembangan produk, promosi. pa.sokan yang kontinu, perrelitian pasar, clan sistem informers! pasar. Sedangkan masalah mum dalam agrihisnis adalah: hambatan-hambatan perdagangan nnernasional, ketersediaan kredit, suku bunga yang tinggi, flukwasi nilai mkar, kebilaksanzzan perdagangan, pajak ekspor, pajak impor Kahan baku, praktek-prakiek hirokrasi, hiaya transpor yang tinggi, ketersediaan bahan-bahan baku dengan kualitas yang bark dan pasokan yang kontinu, kekurangan sarana penunjang, dan kekurangan manajer professional.Dalam kehijakaÂ» perdagangan, penghapusan terhadap semua hambatemhambatan ekspor sepern pajak ekspor untuk produk pertanian dan tarif impor yang tinggi untuk input yang digunakan bagi sektor agribisnis sangat mendesak. Pramosi perdagangan lebih pro-aktif, penyederhanaan hambatan-hambatan hirokrasi untuk masuknya investasi asing akin membantu agribisnis. Disamping itu, kebijakan elan program-program perlu ditekankan untuk menciptakan iklim usaha yang kondusif, mendorong usaha agribisnis skala kecil, memperkzrat sumberdaya dan kelembagaan peï€´zdukung di wilayah perdesaan, menyiapkan infrastruktur investasi yang diperlukan, pelayanan publik yang lebih balk, dan menyediakan pelatihan pemasaran bagi para pengusaha agribisnis.Pada perspektif mikro, upaya-upaya difokuskan kepada : a) intelijen pemasaran mengenai informasi strategis termasuir dampak perjanjian pertanian di WTO, Standar produk, bea masuk rum& produk ekspor, dan review tentang hambatan non- tarif; b) infrastruktur; c) penguatan lembaga pemasaran; d) peningkalan produktivitas; e) pengembangan kemitraan antara perusahaan besar dengan para petani; f) pengembangan sumberdaya manusia. Beberapa hal tersebut di alas harus dikerjakan oleh pemerimah, dan lainnya diserahkatt untuk dapat diiangani oleh sektor swasta

Mobilitas Sirkuler Daya Faktor-faktor Yang mempengaruhinya Di Desa Sidorejo Kec Ponjong Kab Gunung Kidul = Circular Mobility And The Factors Influencing It In Sidorejo Village Ponjong Sub District Gunung Kidul Regency Utami A Yulianti; Mas Sadjono; Slamet Hartono
Agro Ekonomi Vol 10, No 1 (2003): JUNI 2003
Publisher : Department of Agricultural Socio-Economics Faculty of Agriculture Universitas Gadjah Mada

The research aims to find out the factors affecting the circular mobility and the impact of circular mobility on farm production and farmers income.Primary data are .from sample farmers migrant and non migrant. The sample size is 70. The data analyzed by logit model and by difference mean testThe result showed. the affecting factors to circular mobility are. ll. The rural income is negatif flea. 2). Land size is posilif affect 3). wage ratio urban rural negatif affect, The impact of circular mobility increas production and .farmer income. The income ofmigrant familly is Rp -1722611 per year and Rp 2848168 per year for non migrant. The mobility activity contributed higher peoduction and income for migran.

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