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Dwi Valinia Ivanka
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Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences

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Socio-Economic Determinants of Agrarian Succession: A Logistic Regression Analysis of Youth Aspirations in Indonesian Coffee Home Industries Dwi Valinia Ivanka; Hanifah Yasin
Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 8 No. 6 (2025): Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences
Publisher : HM Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37275/oaijss.v8i6.313

Abstract

The global coffee supply chain relies heavily on smallholder farmers, yet agrarian communities face a crisis of generational succession. This study investigates the aspirations of rural youth in Pagaralam, South Sumatra, and the socio-economic mechanisms driving their reluctance to inherit family-owned coffee home industries. A cross-sectional quantitative survey was conducted among 200 respondents aged 16–30 from coffee-farming households. To target established enterprises, a purposive sampling strategy was utilized. Data were collected using validated structured questionnaires. A binary logistic regression analysis was employed to identify predictors of generational succession intent. Only 24.5% (n = 49) of respondents expressed a definitive intent to continue the family business, whereas 61.0% (n = 122) preferred urban or digital employment. The predictive model demonstrated a strong fit (Nagelkerke R-squared = 0.428). Significant negative predictors for succession included higher educational attainment (Odds Ratio = 0.30, p-value < 0.001), perceived income volatility (Odds Ratio = 0.32, p-value < 0.01), and the perceived low social status of farming (Odds Ratio = 0.45, p-value < 0.05). Conversely, access to agricultural modernization technology was a strong positive predictor (Odds Ratio = 3.15, p-value < 0.01). In conclusion, youth out-migration from the coffee sector is strongly associated with structural economic barriers and shifting cultural aspirations rather than a lack of foundational knowledge. Securing the future of these industries requires targeted interventions that integrate technological innovation to rebrand coffee processing as a lucrative, high-status entrepreneurial endeavor.
Socio-Economic Determinants of Agrarian Succession: A Logistic Regression Analysis of Youth Aspirations in Indonesian Coffee Home Industries Dwi Valinia Ivanka; Hanifah Yasin
Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 8 No. 6 (2025): Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences
Publisher : HM Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37275/oaijss.v8i6.313

Abstract

The global coffee supply chain relies heavily on smallholder farmers, yet agrarian communities face a crisis of generational succession. This study investigates the aspirations of rural youth in Pagaralam, South Sumatra, and the socio-economic mechanisms driving their reluctance to inherit family-owned coffee home industries. A cross-sectional quantitative survey was conducted among 200 respondents aged 16–30 from coffee-farming households. To target established enterprises, a purposive sampling strategy was utilized. Data were collected using validated structured questionnaires. A binary logistic regression analysis was employed to identify predictors of generational succession intent. Only 24.5% (n = 49) of respondents expressed a definitive intent to continue the family business, whereas 61.0% (n = 122) preferred urban or digital employment. The predictive model demonstrated a strong fit (Nagelkerke R-squared = 0.428). Significant negative predictors for succession included higher educational attainment (Odds Ratio = 0.30, p-value < 0.001), perceived income volatility (Odds Ratio = 0.32, p-value < 0.01), and the perceived low social status of farming (Odds Ratio = 0.45, p-value < 0.05). Conversely, access to agricultural modernization technology was a strong positive predictor (Odds Ratio = 3.15, p-value < 0.01). In conclusion, youth out-migration from the coffee sector is strongly associated with structural economic barriers and shifting cultural aspirations rather than a lack of foundational knowledge. Securing the future of these industries requires targeted interventions that integrate technological innovation to rebrand coffee processing as a lucrative, high-status entrepreneurial endeavor.
Community Dynamics and Policy Resistance as Determinants of Green Transition Adoption: A Cross-Sectional Study in Indonesian Cities Dwi Valinia Ivanka; Rheina Weisch Fedre; Sarah Armalia
Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences
Publisher : HM Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37275/oaijss.v9i1.318

Abstract

Rapid urbanization in Southeast Asian cities has intensified environmental pressures, yet the adoption of green transition practices remains uneven across communities. While individual-level determinants have been extensively studied, the contributions of community-level social factors remain poorly understood in developing urban contexts. This cross-sectional study examined determinants of green transition adoption (GTA) among 398 residents of four Indonesian cities—Surabaya, Semarang, Bandung, and Yogyakarta—between March and August 2024. Binary logistic regression with nine predictors revealed that Community Dynamics was the strongest predictor (AOR=2.87, 95% CI: 1.79–4.60, p<0.001), followed by Policy Resistance (AOR=2.18, 95% CI: 1.39–3.42, p<0.001) and Social Equity Perception (AOR=1.92, 95% CI: 1.23–3.00, p=0.004). Environmental Knowledge Score and Health Risk Perception were not significant in the multivariate model. The model demonstrated adequate discrimination (AUC=0.79) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.548), explaining 32.6% of outcome variance. Mediation analysis revealed that 35% of the CD–GTA relationship operated through social equity perception (Sobel z=3.21, p=0.001). Community-level social cohesion and institutional legitimacy are more powerful drivers of green transition adoption than individual knowledge or risk perception.
Community Dynamics and Policy Resistance as Determinants of Green Transition Adoption: A Cross-Sectional Study in Indonesian Cities Dwi Valinia Ivanka; Rheina Weisch Fedre; Sarah Armalia
Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences
Publisher : HM Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37275/oaijss.v9i1.318

Abstract

Rapid urbanization in Southeast Asian cities has intensified environmental pressures, yet the adoption of green transition practices remains uneven across communities. While individual-level determinants have been extensively studied, the contributions of community-level social factors remain poorly understood in developing urban contexts. This cross-sectional study examined determinants of green transition adoption (GTA) among 398 residents of four Indonesian cities—Surabaya, Semarang, Bandung, and Yogyakarta—between March and August 2024. Binary logistic regression with nine predictors revealed that Community Dynamics was the strongest predictor (AOR=2.87, 95% CI: 1.79–4.60, p<0.001), followed by Policy Resistance (AOR=2.18, 95% CI: 1.39–3.42, p<0.001) and Social Equity Perception (AOR=1.92, 95% CI: 1.23–3.00, p=0.004). Environmental Knowledge Score and Health Risk Perception were not significant in the multivariate model. The model demonstrated adequate discrimination (AUC=0.79) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.548), explaining 32.6% of outcome variance. Mediation analysis revealed that 35% of the CD–GTA relationship operated through social equity perception (Sobel z=3.21, p=0.001). Community-level social cohesion and institutional legitimacy are more powerful drivers of green transition adoption than individual knowledge or risk perception.
Co-Authors Hanifah Yasin Rheina Weisch Fedre Sarah Armalia