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All Journal Konfrontasi: Jurnal Kultural, Ekonomi dan Perubahan Sosial Budapest International Research and Critics in Linguistics and Education Journal (Birle Journal) Budapest International Research and Critics Institute-Journal (BIRCI-Journal): Humanities and Social Sciences Britain International of Humanities and Social Sciences (BIoHS) Journal Britain International of Exact Sciences Journal (BIoEx Journal) Britain International for Linguistics, Arts and Education Journal (BIoLAE Journal) Rowter Journal Matondang Journal Economit Journal Polit Journal LingLit Journal Lakhomi Journal
Belay Sitotaw Goshu
Department of Physics, Dire Dawa University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
Religion Arts Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Medicine & Pharmacology Physics Social Sciences Other

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Beyond the Blue Nile: Quantile-Hydrological Risk, Geopolitical Leverage, and the Securitization of the Red Sea in the Ethiopia-Egypt GERD Dispute Belay Sitotaw Goshu
Budapest International Research and Critics Institute-Journal (BIRCI-Journal) Vol 9, No 3 (2026): Budapest International Research and Critics Institute August
Publisher : Budapest International Research and Critics University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33258/birci.v9i3.8270

Abstract

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has transformed from a national infrastructure project into a regional security complex, fundamentally reordering power dynamics across the Nile Basin and the Red Sea. Despite over a decade of negotiations, the dispute remains unresolved, with mediation efforts consistently failing to produce a binding agreement. This paper addresses the puzzle of why technical agreements have proven politically untenable by introducing a novel theoretical framework that integrates quantile-hydrological risk assessment, securitization theory, and balance-of-risk theory. Employing a mixed-methods approach combining quantile-based hydrological modeling with critical geopolitical discourse analysis, we demonstrate that downstream vulnerability varies dramatically across flow quantiles, escalating catastrophically during drought conditions while remaining manageable during normal and wet years. This quantile-dependent vulnerability generates existential threat perceptions that drive Egypt's securitization discourse and its strategic pivot from bilateral Nile diplomacy toward extra-basin maneuvering in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa. The analysis reveals three interconnected dynamics: (1) quantile-hydrological risk drives threat perception; (2) threat perception drives securitization and incompatible national narratives, Ethiopia's "developmental justice" versus Egypt's "existential survival"; and (3) securitization has spilled into the Red Sea, creating a security dilemma involving Somali sovereignty, Ethiopian maritime ambitions, and great-power competition. We introduce the concept of hydropolitical entrapment to explain why downstream states become trapped between accepting upstream hegemony or provoking costly regional conflict. We propose a Quantile-Based Confidence-Building Measure that decouples quantile-hydrology from Red Sea leverage by establishing drought-triggered release guarantees while leaving Ethiopia free to operate during normal and wet years. The GERD is no longer a dam but a permanent geopolitical fact that has irrevocably fused the hydrology of the Nile with the geopolitics of the Red Sea. Sustainable peace requires moving beyond zero-sum framings toward conditional, rule-based cooperation that manages quantile-risk without sacrificing sovereignty.
Co-Authors Anantasha Titisania Rimadewi Arifulhak Aceh Bikila Merga Deresa Duol Dak Maluel Kassahun Desealegn Asfaw M. Yoserizal Saragih Melaku Masresha Woldeamanueal Muhammad Ridwan Muhammad Ridwan Muhammad Ridwan Muhammad Ridwan Muhammad Ridwan Nigussie Mamushet Degeif Nurvita Sari Musdiani Silalahi Ramlan Ramlan Ramlan Solomon Zerihun Wan Nurul Atikah Yohana Belay