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Handoko, Rudi
Badan kebijakan Fiskal
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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MODEL PROYEKSI EKSPOR DAN IMPOR - VOLUME DAN HARGA Handoko, Rudi
Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan Vol 14, No 3 (2010)
Publisher : Badan kebijakan Fiskal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31685/kek.v14i3.62

Abstract

Kinerja ekspor dan impor Indonesia selama periode 2000 - 2009 cenderung mengalami peningkatan walaupun sempat mengalami penurunan saat terjadi krisis ekonomi global 2008/2009. Variabel ekonomi yang mempengaruhi ekspor dan impor diidentifikasi seperti permintaan dunia, volume perdagangan dunia, harga ekspor, dan nilai tukar. Model proyeksi difokuskan kepada pertumbuhan (growth) volume dan harga baik ekspor maupun impor. Model ekonometrik yang dikembangkan menggunakan metode ordinary least square (OLS) dengan meregresikan variabel-variabel yang mempengaruhi volume dan harga—ekspor dan impor.
Analisis Kesinambungan Transaksi Berjalan Indonesia: 1980 - 2010 Handoko, Rudi
Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan Vol 15, No 2 (2011)
Publisher : Badan kebijakan Fiskal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31685/kek.v15i2.157

Abstract

This paper attempt to analyze the sustainability of current account in Indonesia. Sustainability analysis of current account is conducted by analysing factors affecting the sustainability of current account for some particular periods. The factors affecting current account sustainability include external debt, debt service ratio, export, real exchange rate, domestic saving and investment, fiscal surplus deficit, economy growth, and capital inflow. The result shows that during period of 1980-2010 current account sustainability facing some disturbances indicated by some factors affecting current account sustainability are lying above the warning level.
FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KINERJA TRANSAKSI BERJALAN INDONESIA Handoko, Rudi
Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan Vol 14, No 4 (2010)
Publisher : Badan kebijakan Fiskal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31685/kek.v14i4.54

Abstract

This paper attempt to describe factors affecting the performance of current account in Indonesia. Current account performance is showed by surplus or deficit position. Analysis of the factors is conducted based on periodization of current account performance. Other analysis was carried out by using scatter graph to show the relationship between two variables in question. The results show that some factors affecting current account performance are global economic growth, Indonesian major trading partners growth, domestic economic growth, international commodities prices, exchange rate management, economic policy, and financial crisis.
Monthly ICP Projection Model Using Arima Method Handoko, Rudi
Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan Vol 18, No 1 (2014)
Publisher : Badan kebijakan Fiskal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31685/kek.v18i1.37

Abstract

Indonesian crude oil price assumption, or commonly abbreviated as ICP plays an important role in the management of state finances. This paper aims to make an ICP projection model monthly. This paper uses econometric methods time series Box-Jenkin or ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). After following the Box-Jenkin methodology, estimation results indicate that the best model to forecast the monthly ICP is ARIMA (1,2,1). Results projection ARIMA (1,2,1) with a static method is more accurate than the dynamic method with a deviation of only 0.8%. If using the static method outlook for ICP in 2014 will be in the range of US$106/bareI - US$108/barel. Policy recommendations related to the price of oil is to determine the Indonesian crude oil price assumption (ICP) suggested using ARIMA (1,2,1). The oil price models have important implications in the management of state finances, namely the ARIMA model can help establish the assumption of ICP and help respond in the event of oil price fluctuations.
DEVELOPING LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR EASTERN INDONESIAN ECONOMY Handoko, Rudi
Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan Vol 1, No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Badan kebijakan Fiskal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31685/kek.v1i1.243

Abstract

The main reason for the construction of the leading indicators for Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Eastern Indonesia is the need for macro-economic policy decision making to obtain the up-to-date condition of the GRDP of Eastern Indonesia development. Using the methodology which was used by the OECD, the composite of leading index for GRDP of Eastern Indonesia has built with its components consist of the 24 variables of total 59 variables relevant to the economy of Eastern Indonesia. This study will contribute to knowledge in terms of the methods used would be adapted to the conditions in Indonesia in two unique characteristics of Indonesia. First, this method adjusts the local area economic conditions in Indonesia are very different in each region and secondly, we adjust the unique characteristics of seasonal patterns in Indonesia, namely the moving seasonal such as Chinese New Year and Idul Fitri.
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