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Abimanyu, Yoopi
Badan kebijakan Fiskal
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Oil Price, Government Revenue, Export Value, and Economic Growth: Indonesia’s Case Abimanyu, Yoopi
Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan Vol 20, No 3 (2016)
Publisher : Badan kebijakan Fiskal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31685/kek.v20i3.194

Abstract

Oil has been one of the main sources of Indonesia’s revenue, either from government budget or balance of payments point of views. Due to supply and demand of oil in the world market, prices of oil, either ICP, Brent UK, or WTI, had been decline lately. There are three hypotheses in this paper. The first hypothesis, oil prices change has a positive relationship with the government revenue. Using correlation coefficient, it is found that prices of oil are positively correlated with government revenue in terms of income tax and non-tax revenue with relatively small value. The second hypothesis, oil prices have a positive correlation with export value. Correlation coefficient indicates that they are positively correlated with a somewhat higher value relative to the first finding. The third hypothesis is oil prices are positively correlated with economic growth in terms of GDP constant price. Using Johansen cointegration, it is found that oil prices are not cointegrated with economic growth. This implies that oil is correlated with government revenue and export value. However, it seems that for the whole economic growth, oil is not correlated to the economy, or the reduction of oil price would not necessarily translate into a decline in the economic output.
Stock Market Integration as a part of Financial Market in the ASEAN Economic Community Abimanyu, Yoopi
Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan Vol 19, No 1 (2015)
Publisher : Badan kebijakan Fiskal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31685/kek.v19i1.31

Abstract

This paper is trying to assess whether the stock market in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, among others Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Philippine, Malaysia, and Vietnam, are integrated monthly data from January 2000 until August 2014. To support that analysis, a somewhat similar approached is done for the foreign exchange market in the same ASEAN member countries. The empirical results suggest that the ASEAN stock markets are co-integrated (except Philippines). Also, there is a positive relationship between Indonesia's and other ASEAN member countries' foreign exchange market. Those analysis were done in relationship with the new regional condition, faced by the new government just recently elected, that is, the ASEAN common market, which would be implemented in 2015.
China Economic Development and its Impact on the Indonesian Economy Abimanyu, Yoopi
Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan Vol 1, No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Badan kebijakan Fiskal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31685/kek.v1i1.273

Abstract

Ekonomi China terus bertumbuh selama tiga decade ini.  Analisa kwalitatif menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi China untuk tahun 2014, 2015, dan 2016, tetap tinggi meskipun ekonomi dunia terus melemah. Karena besarnya peran China dalam perdagangan internasional Indonesia, pertumbuhan ekonomi China sangat penting bagi ekonomi Indonesia. Dengan hipotesa bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi China akan memiliki dampak positif terhadap ekspor Indonesia ke China, analisa kwantitatif dengan menggunakan two stages least squares antara China Produk Domestik Bruto per kapita dengan ekspor Indonesia ke China menunjukkan bahwa kenaikan China Produk Domestik Bruto per kapita sebesar satu persen saja akan mendorong naiknya ekspor Indonesia ke China sebesar 2,43 persen
FACTORS AFFECTING FINANCE COMPANIES Abimanyu, Yoopi
Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan Vol 14, No 1 (2010)
Publisher : Badan kebijakan Fiskal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31685/kek.v14i1.76

Abstract

Perusahaan pembiayaan sebagai salah satu bentuk dari lembaga keuangan dipengaruhi oleh gerakan dari variabel moneter, yakni antara lain nilai tukar dan tingkat bunga pinjaman. Hipotesa dari tulisan singkat ini adalah bahwa kedua variabel moneter tersebut mampu mempengaruhi kinerja dari perusahaan pembiayaan, baik dari sisi aktiva maupun dari sisi pasiva. Data yang digunakan adalah data bulanan periode Desember 2006 sampai dengan Juni 2009. Analisa yang digunakan adalah pendekatan grafik (visual inspection) dan ekonometri, yakni Johansen Cointegration untuk hubungan jangka panjang dan Granger Causality untuk hubungan jangka pendek. Hasil analisa grafik menunjukkan bahwa dari sisi asset, total pembiayaan (termasuk komponennya yakni pembiayaan melalui consumer finance maupun leasing) tidak converge, baik dengan nilai tukar maupun tingkat bunga pinjaman. Hasil analisa ekonometri Johansen Cointegration juga menunjukkan bahwa total pembiayaan termasuk komponennya tidak memiliki hubungan jangka panjang dengan nilai tukar dan tingkat bunga pinjaman. Mereka tidak cointegrated. Analisa jangka pendek dengan menggunakan Granger Causality juga tidak menunjukkan pola keterkaitan antara variabel moneter dan komponen asset dari perusahaan pembiayaan. Dari sisi pasiva, pendekatan grafik ternyata menunjukkan bahwa total pinjaman (dan komponennya, yakni pinjaman dalam negeri dan luar negeri) nampaknya converge dengan nilai tukar maupun tingkat bunga pinjaman. Analisa formal dengan ekonometri menunjukkan bahwa total pinjaman dan komponennya weakly cointegrated dengan nilai tukar dan sepenuhnya cointegrated dengan tingkat bunga pinjaman. Secara umum dapat disimpulkan bahwa kebijakan makroekonomi yang tepat (realisasi kebijakan sama dengan target kebijakan dimana tidak ada over excessive ataupun under excessive macropolicies) yang mampu menghasilkan nilai tukar yang stabil dan tingkat bunga yang relatif rendah, akan mampu meningkatkan kinerja perusahaan pembiayaan dari sisi pasiva.
INTERNATIONAL LINKAGES TO THE INDONESIAN CAPITAL MARKET : COINTEGRATION TEST Abimanyu, Yoopi; Warsidi, Nur Sigit; Kartiko, Sunu; Kurnia, Ridiani; Mahrani, Tety
Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan Vol 16, No 2 (2012)
Publisher : Badan kebijakan Fiskal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31685/kek.v16i2.43

Abstract

This paper explores the international linkages of the Indonesian capital market using cointegration tests to examine the long-run equilibrium relationship between the stock markets of Indonesia with China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Netherlands, Philippine, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The method used in this paper is visual inspection, followed by Johansen cointegration. Our results show that there exist cointegration between these stock market indices except between Indonesia and Philippine.
POSSIBLE IMPACT OF THE ABE-KURO MONETARY EXPANSION ON THE INDONESIAN ECONOMY Abimanyu, Yoopi
Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan Vol 17, No 2 (2013)
Publisher : Badan kebijakan Fiskal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31685/kek.v17i2.10

Abstract

Abenomics, the economic policies of Japan, which recently has been changed into "Abe-Kuro" referring to the Prime Minister and the Governor of the Central Bank, consists of monetary policy, fiscal policy and growth package. It is meant to resolve Japan's low economic growth and deflation. This short note is trying to see the impact of one of the policies, which is the expansion monetary policy, on the Indonesian economy, in particular on the exchange rate and the balance of payments. The hypothesis of this note is that, even though the Indonesian exchange rate will be appreciated, the impact on the capital account is somewhat more significant relative to the current account. On the current account and capital account, the impact of the monetary expansion policy is more on the capital account, particularly the shortterm portfolio movement relative to the current account. Assuming that the United States will stop her monetary expansion policy, the Japan monetary expansion would substitute the United States policy. On the other hand, if the United States monetary expansion policy would be continued, then the Japan monetary expansion policy would supplement the United States policy. In both cases, the Rupiah exchange rate would be appreciated.Abenomics, the economic policies of Japan, which recently has been changed into "Abe-Kuro"referring to the Prime Minister and the Governor of the Central Bank, consists of monetary policy, fiscalpolicy and growth package. It is meant to resolve Japan's low economic growth and deflation. This shortnote is trying to see the impact of one of the policies, which is the expansion monetary policy, on theIndonesian economy, in particular on the exchange rate and the balance of payments. The hypothesis ofthis note is that, even though the Indonesian exchange rate will be appreciated, the impact on the capitalaccount is somewhat more significant relative to the current account. On the current account and capitalaccount, the impact of the monetary expansion policy is more on the capital account, particularly the shorttermportfolio movement relative to the current account. Assuming that the United States will stop hermonetary expansion policy, the Japan monetary expansion would substitute the United States policy. Onthe other hand, if the United States monetary expansion policy would be continued, then the Japanmonetary expansion policy would supplement the United States policy. In both cases, the Rupiah exchangerate would be appreciated.
Deteksi Keterbatasan Likuiditas di Sektor Keuangan Abimanyu, Yoopi
Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan Vol 19, No 3 (2015)
Publisher : Badan kebijakan Fiskal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31685/kek.v19i3.146

Abstract

Sejak tahun 2013 mata uang Rupiah terus terdepresiasi terhadap US dollar dan diharapkan bahwa tren ini akan terus berlanjut di masa yang akan datang. Ekspektasi akan terjadinya depresiasi lanjutan akan mendorong adanya aliran Rupiah dari pasar uang ke pasar valuta asing, untuk selanjutnya di konversi ke mata uang US dollar. Hal ini akan menciptakan kontraksi dan keterbatasan likuiditas di pasar uang dan sektor keuangan. Untuk menghindari keterbatasan tersebut, maka harus ada kebijakan pengukuran yang dilakukan oleh regulator di sektor keuangan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeketeksi apakah terjadi keterbatasan likuiditas Rupiah pada sektor keuangan yang perlu dioffset dengan kebijakan uang ketat dari regulator atau otoritas sektor keuangan. Dengan menggunakan hipotesa bahwa tidak ada keterbatasan Rupiah di sektor keuangan, studi ini menggunakan metode visual inspection dan regresiterhadap variabel-variabelsektor keuangan, seperti base money, M1, M2, saving deposit, time deposit, dan net foreign assets serta net domestic assets. Hasil penelitian ini mendukung hipotesa bahwa tidak ada kontraksi di sektor keuangan. 
Co-Authors Kartiko, Sunu Kurnia, Ridiani Mahrani, Tety Warsidi, Nur Sigit