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Sabrinanur Ramadhani
Institut Teknologi Bandung

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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TECHNICAL AND TECHNICAL-FUNDAMENTAL MODELS FOR STOCK PRICE PREDICTION Sabrinanur Ramadhani; Eneng Nur Hasanah
Jurnal Manajemen dan Bisnis Performa Vol. 23 No.1 (2026)
Publisher : UPT Publikasi Ilmiah UNISBA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29313/performa.v23i1.9440

Abstract

This study evaluates the predictive accuracy and risk-adjusted performance of Technical-Only (TO) and Technical-Fundamental (TF) forecasting models within the Indonesian equity market. Analysis of forecasting errors reveals that while the TO model offers superior consistency across diverse assets with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) consistently below 3.40%, the TF model provides enhanced precision for commodity-linked stocks like ANTM (1.30% error) but suffers from significant instability in speculative segments such as DEWA (10.40% error). Furthermore, while the TO model generated a higher nominal annualized return of 123.33%, the TF model demonstrated superior risk-adjusted efficiency by achieving a Sharpe Ratio of 1.65, matching the actual market benchmark and outperforming the TO model's 1.54. Consequently, the results suggest that while technical indicators provide a robust baseline for general price forecasting, the integration of fundamental filters is essential for achieving optimal risk-managed portfolio performance
Co-Authors Eneng Nur Hasanah, Eneng Nur