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All Journal Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA (JPPIPA)
Dwi Anggraini
Brawijaya University
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Education Materials Science & Nanotechnology Physics

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Evaluation and Bias Correction of CORDEX-SEA Precipitation for Future Rainfall Projection in the Sutami Reservoir Catchment, Indonesia Dwi Anggraini; Sri Wahyuni; Mohammad Bisri
Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA Vol 12 No 5 (2026): In Progress
Publisher : Postgraduate, University of Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/jppipa.v12i5.15055

Abstract

This study evaluates the performance of CORDEX-SEA precipitation data and applies bias correction for future rainfall projection in the Sutami Reservoir catchment, Indonesia, which has an important role in irrigation and flood control management. Observed rainfall data for 1995–2024 were compared with CORDEX-SEA outputs under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios to assess model performance during the present-day period. The model generally overestimated observed rainfall, with average 10-day rainfall values of 86.09 mm/10-day (RCP 4.5) and 89.49 mm/10-day (RCP 8.5), compared to 56.19 mm/10-day from observations. Bias correction was performed using the Linear Scaling (LS) and Quantile Mapping (QM) methods because of their robustness and effectiveness in reducing systematic bias in precipitation data while preserving the temporal characteristics of climate model outputs. The corrected results showed substantial improvement, with the correlation coefficient increasing to 0.95, Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency reaching 0.90, RMSE-standard deviation ratio decreasing to 0.32, and Percent Bias reducing to approximately 2–3%. Rainfall projections for 2025–2030 indicate a decreasing rainfall trend under both scenarios. This study demonstrates that LS and QM can effectively improve CORDEX-SEA precipitation data reliability for watershed-scale climate change and water resources assessments in Indonesia.
Co-Authors Mohammad Bisri Sri Wahyuni