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All Journal Jurnal Manajemen dan Agribisnis Jurnal Sylva Lestari
Bintang Charles Hamonangan Simangunsong
Department of Forest Products, Faculty of Forestry and Environment, IPB University
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Environmental Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology

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Export Competitiveness of Indonesia’s Uncoated Paper in the Global Forest Products Market During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Constant Market Share Analysis Elisa Ganda Togu Manurung; Bintang Charles Hamonangan Simangunsong; Maya Atasha
Jurnal Sylva Lestari Vol. 14 No. 2 (2026): May
Publisher : Department of Forestry, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23960/jsl.v14i2.1434

Abstract

Indonesia is one of the world’s leading exporters of uncoated paper products, supported by abundant plantation forests. However, Indonesia's uncoated paper export declined over the period 2018-2024. The objective of this research was to examine factors affecting the export competitiveness of Indonesia’s uncoated paper products in the global forest products market during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Data on export values, exchange rates, and GDP deflators obtained from Trade Map and the IMF were analyzed using the Constant Market Share analysis.  The results showed that during the COVID-19 pandemic, Indonesia’s uncoated paper exports increased mainly due to favorable impacts on world trade and competitiveness. In contrast, the composition of commodities and market distribution had an unfavorable impact on Indonesia’s exports. After the COVID-19 pandemic (2023-2024), Indonesia’s uncoated paper exports declined due to adverse effects on global trade and a negative competitiveness effect. On the other hand, commodity composition and market distribution had a favorable impact on Indonesia's exports. For the future, Indonesia needs strategies to maintain and improve the competitiveness and market stability of HS 480256, HS 480255, and HS 480257, such as: ensuring the forest certification; maintaining sustainable production, periodically reviewing international trade barriers, tariff changes, production cost efficiency; and increasing the capacity and technology of paper products. To provide more insight, the CMS method should be combined with an econometric method that can directly model a structural change in demand and estimate important parameters, such as price, cross-price, and income elasticities. Keywords: competitiveness effect, composition effect, constant market share, market distribution effect, writing paper
Economics of Gap Planting Technology to Rehabilitate Degraded Natural Forests in Indonesia Bintang Charles Hamonangan Simangunsong; Elias
Jurnal Sylva Lestari Vol. 14 No. 3 (2026): September
Publisher : Department of Forestry, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23960/jsl.v14i3.1549

Abstract

The economics of gap planting technology matter because they determine whether restoring degraded natural forests can be done at scale in a way that’s economically and financially viable for governments, communities, and investors, while also recovering biodiversity and ecosystem services. This study assessed the economic benefits of using gap planting technology —planting commercial, shade-intolerant tree species in artificial gaps— to rehabilitate degraded natural forests. A purposive sampling technique was used to establish 16 artificial gaps, each covering 2,000 m2, which were inventoried on four occasions. Based on the data, the mortality rate, diameter and height increments were determined. Net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), benefit-cost ratio (BCR), and land expectation value (LEV) were also determined in the economic analysis of three scenarios differentiated by rotation age of 6, 7, and 8 years. The results showed the average mortality, diameter and height increments were, respectively, 30%, 3.80 cm year-1 and 326.45 cm year-1. Assuming a real discount rate of 8% year-1 and a real stumpage price of IDR 0.75 million m-3, all scenarios showed NPV >= 0, BCR >= 1, IRR >= minimum acceptable rate of return (MAR), LEV > IDR 115 million ha-1, and job creation of 106 man-days ha-1. Moreover, NPV and LEV are more sensitive to changes in the real stumpage price than to changes in the real discount rate. It is concluded that gap planting technology with white jabon is financially and economically viable under these assumptions and is recommended for the rehabilitation of degraded natural tropical forests in Indonesia. Keywords: economic benefits, fast-growing species, forest rehabilitation, land expectation value, tree increment
Demand For Indonesian Plywood in The South Korean Market Sherly Syahrones; Bintang Charles Hamonangan Simangunsong; Elisa Ganda Togu Manurung
Jurnal Manajemen dan Agribisnis Vol. 23 No. 1 (2026): JMA Vol. 23 No. 1, March 2026
Publisher : School of Business, Bogor Agricultural University (SB-IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17358/jma.23.1.141

Abstract

Background: Indonesia is a tropical country with abundant forest resources, and plywood is a key value-added product. Among the globally traded plywood products, HS 441231 accounts for the largest share and is a strategic component of Indonesia’s exports. South Korea is one of Indonesia’s main export destinations, as imports largely satisfy its plywood demand. Although Indonesia maintains a dominant position, its exports to South Korea have declined in recent years amid competition from Malaysia and Vietnam. Given the high supplier concentration, understanding South Korea’s import demand structure is increasingly important.Purpose: This study analyzes the demand for Indonesian plywood (HS 441231) in the South Korean market using the LA/AIDS and QUAIDS models to assess price and expenditure responses and evaluate Indonesia’s position relative to major competitors.Design/methodology/approach: The analysis uses monthly South Korean import data for HS 441231 from 2010 to 2024. LA/AIDS and QUAIDS models are estimated using SUR and NLSUR with adding-up, homogeneity, and symmetry restrictions.Findings/Result: Indonesian plywood holds the largest import share, shows elastic demand, and functions as a normal good. The quadratic component of the QUAIDS is significant, indicating a nonlinear consumption pattern. Indonesia has a substitution relationship with Malaysia and a complementary relationship with Vietnam.Conclusion: Indonesia’s competitiveness in the South Korean market is primarily price-based, indicating the need for greater cost efficiency, enhanced quality, and compliance with certification requirements to achieve a more sustainable position.Originality/value (State of the art): This study contributes to the literature by combining LA/AIDS and QUAIDS to analyze South Korea’s plywood demand, providing empirical insights into cross-country substitution dynamics. Keywords: elasticity, expenditure share, import competition, LA/AIDS, QUAIDS
Co-Authors Elias Elisa Ganda Togu Manurung Elisa Ganda Togu Manurung Maya Atasha Sherly Syahrones