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All Journal Journal of Management, Accounting, General Finance and International Economic Issues (MARGINAL)
Aulia Keiko Hubbansyah
Universitas Pancasila, Indonesia
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Social Sciences

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The Impact of Changes in Labor Force Structure on Inequality and Poverty in Indonesia Bronson Marpaung; Aulia Keiko Hubbansyah
JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT, ACCOUNTING, GENERAL FINANCE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUES Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026): JUNE
Publisher : Transpublika Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55047/marginal.v5i3.2208

Abstract

Indonesia has demonstrated high and sustained economic growth and has transformed into an industrial and service-oriented nation. The shift of labor from the agricultural sector to non-agricultural sectors such as industry and services has become the center of economic activity. This change can be observed from the increasing contribution of non-agricultural sectors to the economy, accompanied by a decline in the contribution of agriculture in Indonesia. This study differs from others that mainly focus on structural change and its impact on poverty and sectoral inequality, by highlighting the achievement of the turning point condition. Labor surplus in the agricultural sector causes the marginal productivity of labor in this sector to become very low or even nonexistent, a phenomenon that Lewis referred to as disguised unemployment, which frequently occurs in the agricultural sector of developing countries. The aim of this study is to identify the Lewis Turning Point (LTP) and analyze the impact of changes in labor structure on inequality and poverty in Indonesia. This study utilizes secondary data from several institutions, including the World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and UNCTAD, in the form of time series data for the period 1980-2020. In this study, Indonesia has not yet reached the Lewis turning point as a result of the structural change process. The transformation from the agricultural sector to the industrial sector can reduce poverty and inequality, while the transformation from the agricultural sector to the service sector has proven unable to reduce inequality and poverty.
Volatility Spillover of World Oil Prices on the Rupiah Exchange Rate: Evidence from a Net Oil-Importing Emerging Economy Aulia Keiko Hubbansyah; Iha Haryani Hatta; Safitri Siswono; Arya Jati Kusuma Al-Ansori
JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT, ACCOUNTING, GENERAL FINANCE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUES Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026): JUNE
Publisher : Transpublika Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55047/marginal.v5i3.2326

Abstract

Crude oil price volatility is a first-order source of macroeconomic risk for net oil-importing emerging economies, transmitting through the exchange rate to inflation, fiscal balances, and financial stability. Indonesia’s transition since 2004 from a net oil exporter to a net oil importer has fundamentally altered this exposure, yet systematic empirical evidence quantifying the resulting transmission mechanism remains limited. This study examines volatility spillovers between world oil prices and the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate over 1990-2024, employing a two-stage framework combining ARCH-GARCH volatility extraction with a generalized VAR spillover-index approach incorporating generalized forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) and rolling-window estimation. The results reveal a pronounced and asymmetric spillover structure: 26.79% of rupiah exchange rate forecast error variance is attributable to shocks originating in the global oil market, compared to only 5.85% in the reverse direction. The net spillover of +20.94 percentage points confirms that global oil markets operate as a dominant net transmitter of volatility, while the rupiah functions as a persistent net receiver; the Total Connectedness Index (TCI) of 32.6% indicates substantive interdependence between the two markets. Rolling-window analysis further reveals that spillover intensity is strongly state-dependent, amplifying during five major global shock episodes: the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis, the 2004-2008 oil boom, the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, the 2014-2016 oil price collapse, and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. These findings carry concrete implications for Bank Indonesia’s exchange rate surveillance, fiscal subsidy stress-testing, and energy diversification policy.
Co-Authors Arya Jati Kusuma Al-Ansori Bronson Marpaung Iha Haryani Hatta Safitri Siswono