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All Journal Indonesian Journal of Law and Economics Review Indonesian Journal of Education Methods Development
Auday Sabeeh Lazim
Iraqi University Research and Studies Center
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice

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The Impact of Tourism Investment on Enhancing Tourism Demand in Iraq: A Benchmarking Study for the Period (2018-2024) Auday Sabeeh Lazim
Indonesian Journal of Education Methods Development Vol. 21 No. 3 (2026): August
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidoarjo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21070/ijemd.v21i3.1069

Abstract

General Background: Tourism has increasingly been recognized as a strategic sector for economic diversification, particularly in economies seeking alternatives to dependence on a single source of income. Specific Background: Iraq possesses diverse tourism resources; however, tourism investment levels remain relatively modest despite the sector’s development potential. Knowledge Gap: Limited evidence exists regarding the relationship between tourism investment, infrastructure development, macroeconomic stability, and tourism demand in Iraq during periods characterized by structural and external shocks. Aims: This study aims to examine the correlation between tourism investment and inbound tourism demand in Iraq during the period 2018–2024 and to identify the development gap between tourism resources and actual investment performance. Results: Using a quantitative analytical approach and a multiple regression model, the study found a significant positive relationship between tourism investment and tourism demand. Tourism demand exhibited low elasticity toward traditional investments but responded more strongly to high-quality investments. The findings also indicate that stability is the most influential factor affecting tourism demand and investment incentives. Novelty: The study incorporates a stability indicator to isolate the effects of crises and instability within the tourism demand model. Implications: The findings suggest that improving investment quality, strengthening infrastructure, and maintaining political and economic stability are essential for supporting sustainable tourism demand growth and tourism sector development in Iraq. Keywords: Tourism Investment, Tourism Demand, Infrastructure Development, Economic Stability, Iraq Key Findings HighlightsTourism demand responded more strongly to qualitative investment than conventional investment patterns.Positive statistical association was identified between capital allocation and visitor arrivals.Security and economic conditions emerged as the dominant determinant of sector performance.
Econometric Models for Forecasting Tourism Demand in Iraq Amid Security Stability Variables (2010-2025) Auday Sabeeh Lazim
Indonesian Journal of Law and Economics Review Vol. 21 No. 3 (2026): Agustus
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidoarjo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21070/ijler.v21i3.1594

Abstract

General Background: Tourism has become an important contributor to economic diversification and regional development, particularly in countries with significant cultural and historical resources. Specific Background: Iraq possesses substantial tourism potential; however, fluctuations in security conditions have historically influenced tourism demand and complicated long-term planning efforts. Knowledge Gap: Previous studies have often examined tourism demand or security conditions separately, while limited research has integrated security stability variables into advanced tourism forecasting models for Iraq. Aims: This study aims to analyze the relationship between security stability and tourism demand in Iraq and to forecast tourist arrivals for the period 2026–2030 using an econometric approach. Results: The findings reveal a strong and statistically significant positive relationship between security stability and tourism demand. The ARIMAX model demonstrated its suitability for forecasting tourism demand and projected a continued increase in tourist arrivals, potentially reaching approximately 11 million visitors by 2030 under conditions of sustained stability. Novelty: The study integrates a quantitative security stability index with an ARIMAX forecasting model to examine tourism demand within the Iraqi context. Implications: The results suggest that maintaining security stability, strengthening tourism infrastructure, and accelerating digital transformation are essential for supporting future tourism growth and effective tourism planning in Iraq. Keywords: Tourism Demand, Security Stability, ARIMAX Model, Tourism Forecasting, Iraq Key Findings Highlights Strong positive association was identified between safety conditions and visitor arrivals. The selected econometric approach produced reliable medium-term projections. Tourist numbers are expected to continue rising under sustained national stability.
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