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All Journal Enrichment: Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development
I Gusti Agung Adnyana Putera
Universitas Udayana, Indonesia
Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Engineering Health Professions Social Sciences

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A Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System-Based Model for Time and Cost Estimation of Structural Works in Construction Projects I Made Gde Andhika Putra Wijaya; Dewa Ketut Sudarsana; I Gusti Agung Adnyana Putera
Enrichment: Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development Vol. 4 No. 2 (2026): Enrichment: Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development
Publisher : International Journal Labs

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55324/enrichment.v4i2.674

Abstract

This study addresses the persistent problem of inaccurate time and cost estimation in construction projects caused by uncertainty during the planning and execution phases. Structural works are particularly vulnerable to delays and budget deviations due to factors such as rainfall conditions, labor discipline, planning quality, design changes, and material price fluctuations. Therefore, this study aims to develop a Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System (FIS)-based model for estimating the time and cost of structural works under uncertain project conditions. The research employed a case-based model development design focusing on structural works in a villa construction project. Data were collected from deterministic schedules and budgets, actual project records, expert questionnaires, Focus Group Discussions (FGD), MATLAB simulations, and Microsoft Project integration. The fuzzy model generated Duration Factor and Cost Factor outputs to adjust deterministic baseline values into uncertainty-adjusted fuzzy baselines. The findings showed that the fuzzy model improved estimation accuracy compared to the deterministic baseline. The project duration estimate increased from 346 days to 369.12 days, approaching the actual duration of 377 days, while the cost estimate improved from IDR 3.74 billion to IDR 3.93 billion compared to the actual cost of IDR 4.01 billion. In conclusion, the Mamdani FIS-based model provides a more realistic and adaptive baseline estimation approach for structural construction works under uncertain conditions.
Probabilistic Risk Modeling for Performance Deviation in Multinational Construction Projects in Bali Putu Risna Pastawan; A.A. Gde Agung Yana; I Gusti Agung Adnyana Putera
Enrichment: Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development Vol. 4 No. 3 (2026): Enrichment: Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development
Publisher : International Journal Labs

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55324/enrichment.v4i3.677

Abstract

Multinational construction projects in tourism regions are exposed to complex uncertainty arising from cultural differences, fragmented organizational systems, differing technical standards, and cross-border stakeholder coordination. This research examines how performance deviations may occur in multinational construction projects in Bali, Indonesia, by applying a probabilistic risk-based approach. The model was built incrementally, beginning with the identification of risks from earlier studies and expert input. The risks were then assessed through questionnaire surveys and a risk matrix before being modeled using triangular probability distributions and Monte Carlo simulation. The final stage employed sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential risks and to support the development of mitigation strategies. This research was carried out in the context of accommodation and tourism-residential projects in the Sarbagita area of Bali, where foreign owners, consultants, designers, or specialists frequently interact with local contractors. The dominant risks were selected by considering both their frequency and impact, and were then expressed as minimum, most likely, and maximum impact values for the time, cost, and quality models. A 10,000-trial Monte Carlo simulation indicated that the simultaneous occurrence of dominant risks could generate average deviations of 8.37% in time, 15.90% in cost, and 7.88% in quality. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the effectiveness of multinational team communication was the most influential factor for time deviation, whereas technical and project information readiness was the most influential factor for cost and quality deviation. This study contributes a structured decision-support approach for translating qualitative multinational construction risks into probabilistic performance estimates and practical mitigation priorities.
Co-Authors A.A. Gde Agung Yana Dewa Ketut Sudarsana I Made Gde Andhika Putra Wijaya Putu Risna Pastawan