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All Journal Zero : Jurnal Sains, Matematika, dan Terapan
Arya Candra Kusuma
Directorate of Crops, Horticulture, and Plantation Statistics, BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Chemistry Mathematics Physics

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Spatial Analysis of Indonesia’s 2019 Provincial Voter Turnout Using Geographically Weighted Regression Ernawati Pasaribu; Ega Eugenia Naomi; Arya Candra Kusuma; Firman Emmanuel Declarantius Parulian
ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Vol 10, No 1 (2026): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/zero.v10i1.28152

Abstract

This study analyzes spatial heterogeneity in voter behavior using the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model, estimated via GWR 4.0 software to ensure reproducibility. Using 2019 provincial-level data, we compare an OLS model against GWR to evaluate the mean voter turnout across Indonesia’s concurrent elections. The GWR model significantly improved estimation performance, evidenced by a reduction in AICc from -140.960 to -146.581 and an increase in Adjusted R² from 36.48% globally to a local range of 65.30%–82.60%. Statistical testing via F-statistic yielded a p-value of 0.0633, significant at the 10% level acceptable given the sample size (n=34). Findings reveal significant spatial non-stationarity: the Gini ratio shows a pervasive positive mobilization effect, while education and infrastructure display region-specific impacts, with infrastructure accessibility strongly influencing turnout in eastern Indonesia. These results underscore the mathematical necessity of incorporating geographic variance into predictive electoral models to capture localized socio-political dynamics.
Co-Authors Ega Eugenia Naomi Ernawati Pasaribu Firman Emmanuel Declarantius Parulian