Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2021 - 2026
0.444
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All Journal Sebelas Maret Business Review Business and Economic Publication
Romanus Yoseph Kun Haribowo Purnomosidi
Universitas Gadjah Mada
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Peramalan Nilai Tukar Petani Provinsi Sulawesi Barat dengan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Adhitya Kukuh Pradhana; Fajrin Achmad Rizki; Nafisa Kalyca Candrayani; Felda Nayla Seftiandri; Denti Brina Azalia; Fajar Novianto Alfitrah; Romanus Yoseph Kun Haribowo Purnomosidi
Business and Economic Publication Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): Business and Economic Publication
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas KH. A. Wahab Hasbullah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32764/bep.v4i1.1763

Abstract

This study examines forecasting the Farmer's Exchange Rate (NTP) of West Sulawesi Province as an indicator of farmer welfare. Its urgency is grounded in historical volatility, where the NTP fluctuated between 100.36 in July 2022 and 158.28 in December 2024. Using monthly time-series data from January 2019 to March 2026, the analysis applies the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test confirms stationarity at the first difference with a p-value of 0.0000. ARIMA (3,1,1) was selected as the optimal model due to having the lowest AIC (5.372010) and SC (5.486165) values. Projections indicate a gradual NTP increase from 121.96 in April 2026 to 128.45 in December 2027. These findings provide an empirical foundation for the local government to formulate preventive policies, specifically input price stabilization and optimized subsidy distribution, to protect farmers purchasing power and long-term farmer welfare.
Joglosemar in the investment vortex: Is inclusive growth just rhetoric? Rina Manasika; Romanus Yoseph Kun Haribowo Purnomosidi
Sebelas Maret Business Review Vol 10, No 1 (2025): June 2025 (Article in progress)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20961/smbr.v10i1.101318

Abstract

Doubling per capita income may create the illusion of progress, but it hides a more troubling fact by obscuring the underlying socio-economic challenges. As a national economic, strategic area (Kawasan Strategis Ekonomi-KSE) and the golden triangle in Central Java Province - Special Region of Yogyakarta, the achievement of inclusive economic growth in the cities of Yogyakarta, Surakarta, and Semarang remains a question. This study aims to analyze the role of investment in the leading sector in achieving inclusive economic growth in the Joglosemar reliable area. The objective was achieved using location quotient (LQ), shift share (SS), Klassen typology analysis methods, and path analysis. As a result, developing strategic projects and establishing Joglosemar’s main development area, which attracts investment in leading sectors, have not created inclusive economic growth. Foreign direct investment (FDI) or (penanaman modal asing-PMA) and domestic direct investment (DDI) or (penanaman modal dalam negeri-PMDN) partially do not have a significant effect on the inclusive economic growth of the Joglosemar reliable area through the leading sector. To strengthen the broad multiplier effect, the government can align fiscal and monetary policies with the needs of leading sector development. In addition, the government can also create a collaboration scheme between FDI and DDI to maximize the contribution of both as a source of investment.
Co-Authors Adhitya Kukuh Pradhana Denti Brina Azalia Fajar Novianto Alfitrah Fajrin Achmad Rizki Felda Nayla Seftiandri Nafisa Kalyca Candrayani Rina Manasika