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All Journal Baileo: Jurnal Sosial Humaniora
Iskandarini Iskandarini
Universitas Sumatera Utara, Indonesia
Humanities Environmental Science Social Sciences

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Price Policy, Agrarian Structure, and Rural Welfare: An ARDL Analysis of Rice Governance and Farmer Exchange Rates in Indonesia Punguan Hutagalung; Surya Abadi Sembiring; Iskandarini Iskandarini
Baileo: Jurnal Sosial Humaniora Vol 3 No 3: May 2026
Publisher : Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/baileofisipvol3iss3pp634-655

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the Government Purchase Price (HPP) policy and fertilizer subsidies on rice production and farmer welfare, measured by the Farmer Exchange Rate (NTP), within the framework of agrarian governance in Indonesia. It examines both short-run and long-run effects while situating these policies within broader state intervention dynamics. A quantitative approach is employed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model on monthly time-series data from January 2020 to December 2024, complemented by a qualitative review of policy regulations. The findings reveal that HPP significantly affects rice production in both the short and long term, albeit with a negative coefficient, indicating structural adjustment toward equilibrium. In contrast, fertilizer subsidies show no significant effect on production, reflecting implementation inefficiencies. Regarding welfare, HPP exerts a positive and significant influence on NTP, highlighting its role in enhancing farmers’ purchasing power, whereas fertilizer subsidies remain insignificant. This study contributes by integrating production and welfare analysis within a single empirical framework and reinterpreting econometric findings through a state–society relations lens. It concludes that output price policies are more effective than input subsidies, although their impact remains constrained by institutional and governance challenges.
How Contract Farming Shapes Farmer Satisfaction: Evidence from Broiler Partnerships in Rural Indonesia Annisa Miranti; Ma'ruf Tafsin; Iskandarini Iskandarini
Baileo: Jurnal Sosial Humaniora Vol 4 No 1: September 2026
Publisher : Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/baileofisipvol4iss1pp66-83

Abstract

Contract farming has become an important institutional mechanism for integrating smallholder poultry farmers into modern agrifood value chains, yet little is known about how its service governance shapes farmer satisfaction beyond economic outcomes. This study examines how institutional service quality influences farmer satisfaction within broiler contract farming in rural Indonesia. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 73 contract broiler farmers affiliated with seven partnership companies in Langkat Regency, North Sumatra. Data were collected using structured questionnaires covering sixteen partnership service attributes and analyzed through Importance–Performance Analysis (IPA) and the Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI). The findings indicate that farmers were generally satisfied with the partnership system (CSI = 68.60%), although a substantial gap remained between service performance and farmers’ expectations. Attributes associated with production risk management—including the quality of day-old chicks, veterinary inputs, technical assistance, harvest timeliness, and compensation—represented the highest priorities for improvement, whereas feed quality, feed pricing, production standards, and harvest price conformity constituted the system’s principal strengths. These findings demonstrate that farmer satisfaction is shaped not only by economic incentives but also by institutional service quality, governance responsiveness, and risk-sharing arrangements. The study advances the contract farming literature by framing partnership performance as an institutional governance issue and offers an evidence-based framework for strengthening sustainable, farmer-centered contract farming in rural agrifood systems.
Co-Authors Annisa Miranti Ma'ruf Tafsin Punguan Hutagalung Surya Abadi Sembiring