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All Journal HUMAN FALAH: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam Anggaran: Jurnal Publikasi Ekonomi dan Akuntansi
Annisa Fadilla Adha
Universitas Andalas
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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PENGARUH INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA, TINGKAT KEMISKINAN, DAN PENGANGGURAN TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA Annisa Fadilla Adha; Elfindri Elfindri
HUMAN FALAH: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Islam HUMAN FALAH: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Islam │ Vol. 13 │ No. 1 │ 2026
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/hf.v0i0.29740

Abstract

This study examines the influence of the Human Development Index (HDI), poverty rate, and unemployment rate on economic growth across Indonesian provinces during the period 2020–2023. Using secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), the analysis employs a Fixed Effect Model (FEM) with cluster-robust standard errors to address heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation in panel data. The findings reveal that HDI has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, indicating that improvements in education, health, and overall human capabilities play a key role in stimulating regional economic performance. Meanwhile, the poverty rate shows no significant impact on economic growth, suggesting that short-term economic fluctuations are not immediately sensitive to poverty levels. In contrast, the unemployment rate exhibits a negative and significant effect, demonstrating that higher unemployment reduces productive capacity and dampens economic activity at the provincial level. Overall, the study highlights the critical importance of enhancing human development and strengthening labor market conditions to promote sustainable and inclusive economic growth in Indonesia.
Analisis Hubungan Dinamis dan Peramalan Inflasi di Indonesia: Pendekatan Vector Autoregression (VAR) dan Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) Annisa Fadilla Adha; Betty Uspri
Anggaran : Jurnal Publikasi Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Vol. 4 No. 3 (2026): September : Anggaran : Jurnal Publikasi Ekonomi dan Akuntansi
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61132/anggaran.v4i3.2615

Abstract

This study analyzes the dynamic relationships between inflation and key macroeconomic variables and compares the forecasting accuracy of the Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) models in Indonesia over the 1989–2024 period. The study employs annual data on inflation, exchange rates, money supply (M2), real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Producer Price Index (PPI), world oil prices, and global inflation. VAR and BVAR models are used to examine the dynamic interactions among the variables, while Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) are employed to assess the responses of inflation to macroeconomic shocks and the contribution of each variable to inflation forecast error variance. The forecasting performance of the models is evaluated by comparing their forecast errors. The results show that inflation exhibits dynamic responses to shocks in all selected macroeconomic variables and gradually returns toward equilibrium following the shocks. The FEVD results indicate that, after its own shocks, the exchange rate provides the largest contribution to the forecast error variance of inflation, followed by world oil prices, real GDP, money supply (M2), global inflation, and PPI. Furthermore, the forecasting evaluation shows that the BVAR model with the Minnesota Prior produces lower forecast errors than the VAR model. These findings indicate that incorporating Bayesian shrinkage through the Minnesota Prior can improve the forecasting performance of inflation. The BVAR model therefore provides a more accurate approach for forecasting inflation in Indonesia.
Co-Authors Betty Uspri Elfindri, Elfindri