Ernanto
Universitas Muhammadiyah Cirebon

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False Recovery in Financial Distress Prediction: Evidence from Altman Z″-Score EMS at PT Supra Boga Lestari Tbk 2022-2025 Siti Sumayyah; Ali Jufri; Ernanto
Indonesian Journal Economic Review (IJER) Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026): June
Publisher : Divisi Riset, Lembaga Mitra Solusi Teknologi Informasi (L-MSTI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59431/ijer.v6i2.882

Abstract

Financial distress prediction models remain vulnerable to misclassification when firms report significant non-recurring income that obscures deteriorating operational fundamentals. In order to determine whether a 2024 improvement in the Altman Z-Score Emerging Market Scoring (EMS) signal truly reflects operational recovery or is distorted by transitory income, this study examines a false recovery phenomenon in PT Supra Boga Lestari Tbk (RANC), an Indonesian premium retailer undergoing digital transformation. The study calculates annual Z-Score values and does a what-if restatement analysis using audited financial data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange covering 2022–2025 using a quantitative descriptive single-case design. The findings verify that RANC spent the entire time in the financial difficulty zone. Crucially, the apparent improvement in 2024 was accompanied by a 42.7 percent drop in operating cash flow, which was caused by a non-recurring disposal gain of Rp110.7 billion that concurrently inflated total assets and earnings. A paradoxical Z-Score of 2.1546 (grey zone) was obtained from a what-if restatement that excluded this gain. This revealed a structural conundrum in which, when transient revenue is present, the model's component interactions generate noise rather than trustworthy diagnostic signals. These results show that gains in Z-Score may be a deceptive recovery signal that is unrelated to actual operational health. It is recommended that investors and analysts add operating cash flow analysis and earnings quality screening to distress model results, especially for companies going through post-acquisition digital transformation.
Accrual-Based Earnings Management under External Pressure: Evidence from FAST and PZZA Using the Modified Jones Model Maya Ismayanti; Ali Jufri; Ernanto
Indonesian Journal Economic Review (IJER) Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026): June
Publisher : Divisi Riset, Lembaga Mitra Solusi Teknologi Informasi (L-MSTI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59431/ijer.v6i2.884

Abstract

This observe objectives to research warning signs of accrual-primarily based profits management at PT fast meals Indonesia Tbk (rapid) and PT Sarimelati Kencana Tbk (PZZA) all through the 2020–2024 length, while both businesses confronted outside pressures within the shape of the COVID-19 pandemic and consumer boycott sentiment. This examine employs a quantitative method the usage of secondary facts inside the form of the organizations’ annual monetary statements for the 2020–2024 duration. profits control turned into measured using the changed Jones model by way of calculating general accruals, non-discretionary accruals, and discretionary accruals. The consequences suggest that each groups skilled a discrepancy among internet earnings and running cash go with the flow, as meditated in terrible general accruals throughout the observation period. notwithstanding facing exceedingly similar outside pressures, fast constantly exhibited high quality discretionary accruals starting from 0.3296 to 0.3416 (suggest ±0.338), while PZZA constantly exhibited bad discretionary accruals starting from -0.3742 to -0.3209 (mean ±-0.343). these findings indicate that speedy tended to interact in income-growing accruals, even as PZZA tended to have interaction in profits-decreasing accruals all through the remark period. moreover, the results display that even though both groups faced tremendously comparable outside pressures, their responses in terms of discretionary accruals did not comply with a uniform sample. The response to outside pressures thru discretionary accruals became extra stimulated by using business enterprise characteristics and the particular situations faced by way of each enterprise. additionally, the modified Jones model used on this take a look at served as an indicative device for figuring out discretionary accruals.