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All Journal MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting
Andika Ellena Saufika Hakim Maharani
University of Mataram
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics

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Optimizing the Distribution of Cow Skin Crackers at UMKM Putra-Putri Agli Using the Min-Plus Algebra Method for Shortest Route Determination Marliana; Andika Ellena Saufika Hakim Maharani; Muhammad Rijal Alfian
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): June 2026
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v4i1.57

Abstract

This study applies Min–Plus Algebra to model and analyze the distribution network of UMKM Putra-Putri Agli, a small enterprise in West Lombok engaged in the production and distribution of cowhide crackers. The objective of this research is to analyze the distribution network and identify shortest-path relationships between distribution locations based on actual distance data. The distribution system is represented as an undirected weighted graph, where nodes correspond to distribution locations and edge weights represent the distances between locations obtained from Google Maps. The analysis is conducted by constructing a distance matrix and applying Min–Plus Algebra operations to compute successive matrix powers, leading to the formation of the closure matrix . The results show that the closure matrix successfully identifies the minimum distances between all pairs of distribution locations and provides the basis for deriving a distribution route with a total distance of 88.1 km. The findings also indicate that the network's structure and connectivity significantly influence route formation, as some locations can only be reached via intermediate nodes. The novelty of this study lies in the application of Min–Plus Algebra to an UMKM distribution network using actual field data and a network structure characterized by limited connectivity. The results demonstrate that Min–Plus Algebra provides a systematic algebraic framework for analyzing shortest-path relationships in small-scale distribution networks. However, the model is limited to static distance-based analysis and does not consider dynamic factors such as traffic conditions, travel time variations, or vehicle capacity constraints.
RICE HARVEST AREA FORECASTING USING MOVING AVERAGE METHOD FOR FOOD SECURITY PLANNING Andika Ellena Saufika Hakim Maharani; Helmina Andriani; Nuzla Af'idatur Robbaniyyah; Salwa; Nafika Fatanaya
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 13 No. 3 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/mathunesa.v13n3.p29-36

Abstract

Ensuring food security is a key part of sustainable development in Indonesia, especially since rice remains the country's staple crop. In regions like West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) Province, where rice harvest areas can vary significantly, having accurate forecasts is essential for effective planning. This study explores historical data on rice harvest areas in NTB to forecast future trends, uncover seasonal patterns, and assess long-term changes. To do this, we apply and compare three forecasting methods: Simple Moving Average (SMA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA), and Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Their performance is evaluated using accuracy measures such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), with results also presented visually to support data-driven decision-making. Among the methods tested, EMA with a 3-period window (EMA-3) produced the most accurate forecasts. This is reflected in its lower RMSE and MAPE values compared to the other methods. Based on the MAPE results, EMA-3 proves to be a reliable method for forecasting rice harvest areas in NTB.
Co-Authors Helmina Andriani Marliana Muhammad Rijal Alfian Nafika Fatanaya Nuzla Af'idatur Robbaniyyah Salwa