Maulana Muhammad Jogo Samodro
Universitas Safin Pati

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A Hybrid Decision Support System for Rice Plant Disease Diagnosis and Treatment Recommendation Using Dempster-Shafer, AHP-TOPSIS, and Fuzzy SAW: Sistem Pendukung Keputusan Hibrida untuk Diagnosis Penyakit Tanaman Padi dan Rekomendasi Pengobatan Menggunakan Dempster-Shafer, AHP-TOPSIS, dan Fuzzy SAW Hendik Dwi Nur Cahyono; Cahya Kusuma; Maulana Muhammad Jogo Samodro; Hariyanto Hariyanto
Journal of Data Insights Vol 4 No 1 (2026): Journal of Data Insights
Publisher : Department of Sains Data UNIMUS Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26714/jodi.v4i1.1165

Abstract

Rice diseases — blast (Magnaporthe oryzae), bacterial leaf blight (Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae), and sheath blight (Rhizoctonia solani)—cause annual global yield losses of 10–100%, resulting in billions of U.S. dollars in economic damage. Smallholder farmers in remote regions often lack access to agronomy experts and face difficulties using image-based diagnostic systems on low-capacity devices. This study proposes and evaluates a hybrid three-module Decision Support System (DSS) framework based on non-image tabular data to address these challenges. The framework integrates: (1) Dempster–Shafer Theory for probabilistic disease diagnosis using 48 structured clinical symptom parameters from ESforRPD2; (2) a hybrid AHP–TOPSIS module with CRITIC-based objective weight verification for multicriteria treatment ranking; and (3) an adaptive Fuzzy SAW module employing dynamic weights based on crop growth stages derived from Paddy Doctor Metadata. Experimental results show that the Dempster–Shafer module achieved 88.9% accuracy, a macro F1-score of 0.877, and a macro AUC-ROC of 0.939, outperforming Certainty Factor (82.4%), Random Forest (85.7%), and XGBoost (86.1%). The AHP model produced a valid Consistency Ratio (CR = 0.030), while CRITIC analysis revealed substantial differences between expert-assigned and data-driven weights. The adaptive Fuzzy SAW module achieved 100% agreement with agronomy expert recommendations (Spearman’s rho = 0.941), surpassing static SAW (25%, rho = 0.487) and standalone TOPSIS (0%, rho = 0.412). The framework operates without image input and provides recommendations in under two seconds, making it suitable for low-capacity devices and remote agricultural environment
A Hybrid AHP-TOPSIS Decision Support System with Temporal Ridge Regression for Dynamic Prediction of Regional Food Vulnerability Index: Sistem Pendukung Keputusan AHP-TOPSIS Hibrida dengan Regresi Ridge Temporal untuk Prediksi Dinamis Indeks Kerentanan Pangan Regional Surya Supratman; Riduan Riduan; Mokhamad Solikin; Maulana Muhammad Jogo Samodro
Journal of Data Insights Vol 4 No 1 (2026): Journal of Data Insights
Publisher : Department of Sains Data UNIMUS Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26714/jodi.v4i1.1179

Abstract

Regional food vulnerability in Indonesia is a dynamic and multidimensional challenge that requires timely and accurate monitoring. However, the annual Food Security and Vulnerability Atlas (FSVA) remains limited in its ability to capture rapid intra-annual changes in food security conditions, reducing its effectiveness as an early-warning instrument. This limitation became evident during the 2023 El Niño event, which caused significant production shocks that were not reflected in official vulnerability assessments until the following year. This study proposes a Hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (HMCDM) framework integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Ridge Regression to generate a dynamic Regional Food Vulnerability Index (RFVI). The framework was evaluated using a 36-month panel dataset covering 30 sub-districts and nine food security indicators. Expert-derived criteria weights were validated through AHP consistency testing (CR = 0.056), while monthly TOPSIS scores were transformed into supervised learning targets using a novel TOPSIS-as-ML-target architecture. Temporal prediction was performed using Ridge Regression with lag-based feature engineering and expanding-window cross-validation. The proposed model achieved strong predictive performance ((R^2 = 0.870), MAE = 0.043, RMSE = 0.061), outperforming standalone Ridge Regression, ARIMA, and Naïve Forecast baselines. Vulnerability classification accuracy reached 97.3%, while Spearman correlation analysis ((\rho = 0.831), (p < 0.01)) confirmed substantial agreement between expert-defined priorities and data-driven feature importance. The results demonstrate that integrating multicriteria evaluation with temporal machine learning can significantly improve food vulnerability forecasting. The proposed framework provides a robust foundation for data-driven early-warning systems and proactive food security policy planning.