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All Journal Jurnal Tata Kelola dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara
Puji Wibowo
Department of Public Sector Accounting, Polytechnic of State Finance, Banten, Indonesia
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Unraveling fiscal-economic causality: The roles of revenues and expenditure in Indonesia’s growth trajectory Ramadhan Try Adriansyah; Puji Wibowo
Jurnal Tata Kelola dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara Vol. 12 No. 1 (2026): JTAKEN Vol. 12 No. 1 June 2026
Publisher : Badan Pemeriksa Keuangan Republik Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.28986/jtaken.v12i1.2203

Abstract

Public finance literature emphasizes the interdependence between government revenue, expenditure, and economic growth, yet empirical evidence on the dynamic relationships among tax revenue, nontax revenue, and public spending in developing economies remains limited. Understanding these interactions is particularly important for Indonesia, where fiscal policy plays a central role in supporting macroeconomic stability and long-term development. This study examines the causal relationships among tax revenue, nontax state revenue, government expenditure, and economic growth in Indonesia over the period 1969–2021 using annual time-series data (53 observations per variable). The analysis employs Granger causality tests, complemented by impulse response functions (IRFs) and variance decomposition (VD) to capture dynamic interactions among variables. The results indicate unidirectional causality from tax revenue to government expenditure, supporting the tax–spend hypothesis, and from government expenditure to nontax revenue, supporting the spend–tax hypothesis. Economic growth is found to drive both nontax revenue and government expenditure, consistent with Wagner’s Law. These findings highlight the important role of fiscal capacity and macroeconomic performance in shaping Indonesia’s revenue and expenditure dynamics. By integrating long-term fiscal and macroeconomic data, this study contributes context-specific empirical evidence that enriches the fiscal policy literature and provides insights for strengthening sustainable fiscal management in Indonesia.
Co-Authors Ramadhan Try Adriansyah