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All Journal Infolitika Journal of Data Science Genesis Law and Social Sciences
Muhammad Zhafran Abiyyu
Department of International Relations, Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman, Purwokerto 53122, Indonesia
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Engineering

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Idiosyncratic Factors in Defense Policy Formulation: An Analysis of Prabowo Subianto's Role in Indonesia's Optimum Essential Force 2025 Muhammad Zhafran Abiyyu; Shabrina Khalisah Ibrahim
Genesis Law and Social Sciences Vol. 2 No. 1 (2026): May 2026
Publisher : Graha Primera Saintifika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61975/glass.v2i1.127

Abstract

This study analyzes the influence of Prabowo Subianto's idiosyncratic characteristics on the formulation of Indonesia's Optimum Essential Force (OEF) 2025 defense policy. Despite growing scholarly interest in Indonesian defense modernization, existing literature predominantly emphasizes structural and institutional explanations while under examining the role of individual leadership. Drawing on Foreign Policy Analysis, this study employs Leadership Trait Analysis (LTA) based on Hermann's framework and process tracing to construct and verify causal chains between Prabowo's personal characteristics and specific OEF 2025 policy decisions. Analysis of spontaneous public statements identifies four dominant traits: high need for power, high belief in ability to control events, high self-confidence, and high ingroup bias combined with medium-high distrust of others. Process tracing demonstrates that these traits causally contributed to the centralization of acquisition decision-making, the mandatory inclusion of technology transfer clauses, the ambitious defense budget targets, and platform preferences reflecting limited power-projection ambitions. The findings indicate that the qualitative shift from the Minimum Essential Force to OEF 2025 cannot be explained by regional structural pressures alone; within this case, the idiosyncratic variable functions as a necessary component of the explanation. The study contributes the first systematic individual-level account of Indonesian defense policymaking and illustrates the analytical value of leadership variables in explaining departures from established policy trajectories.
Short-Term Reliability and Long-Term Limits of Stable Log-ARIMA for Population Forecasting Across Southeast Asia Ghifari Maulana Idroes; Fatih Avicenna Hizir; Muhammad Zhafran Abiyyu
Infolitika Journal of Data Science Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): May 2026
Publisher : Heca Sentra Analitika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.60084/ijds.v4i1.425

Abstract

Population forecasting is essential for long-term planning in labor markets, healthcare, education, infrastructure, and social protection. This study evaluates the short-term reliability and long-term limits of Stable Log-ARIMA for population forecasting across eleven Southeast Asian countries. Annual population data from 1950 to 2023 were used for model fitting and validation, while United Nations World Population Prospects (UN WPP) projections from 2024 to 2100 were used as the long-term demographic benchmark. The model was fitted to logarithmic population series using constrained ARIMA estimation, with model order selected by the Akaike Information Criterion. Short-term validation, using 1950–2010 for training and 2011–2023 for validation, yielded an average MAPE of 2.01%, indicating strong short-term forecasting performance. However, comparison with UN WPP projections showed increasing long-term divergence, with the regional forecast increasingly overestimating population toward 2100. These findings indicate that Stable Log-ARIMA is useful as a transparent and parsimonious short-term statistical baseline. Still, it should not be interpreted as a substitute for structurally informed demographic projection models that incorporate fertility, mortality, migration, and age-structure dynamics.
Co-Authors Fatih Avicenna Hizir Ghifari Maulana Idroes Shabrina Khalisah Ibrahim