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All Journal Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi Kesatuan Indonesian Journal of Taxation and Accounting
Ghozali Maski
Universitas Brawijaya, Indonesia
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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The Effect Of Fundamental And External Factors On Stock Returns With Inflation As A Mediator An Explanatory Study Of Banking Companies In The Banking Group Based On Core Capital Muhamad Kadafi; Ghozali Maski; Tyas Danarti Hascaryani
Indonesian Journal of Taxation and Accounting Vol 4, No 2 (2026): June 2026
Publisher : Academic Bright Collaboration

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.66053/ijota.v4i2.701

Abstract

Purpose – This study examines the direct effects of Return on Equity (ROE), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Debt-to-Equity Ratio (DER), Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI), exchange rate, and deposit interest rates on the stock returns of Indonesian KBMI 4 banks, while testing inflation as a mediating variable. Methods – An explanatory quantitative design was applied to four KBMI 4 banks BRI, BNI, Mandiri, and BCA using saturated sampling and 56 observations. Secondary data were obtained from annual financial reports, Indonesian banking statistics, the Financial Services Authority, and the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Panel data were analyzed using Stata 17 through model-selection tests, classical assumption tests, hypothesis testing, and the Aroian version of the Sobel test. Findings – The independent variables jointly explained 30.76% of stock-return variation. External factors were the primary determinants. CSPI had a significant positive effect (p = 0.004), the exchange rate had a significant negative effect (p = 0.002), and deposit interest rates had a significant positive effect (p = 0.009). ROE, CAR, and DER had no significant effects. Inflation significantly affected stock returns in the basic model, but its effect weakened after other variables were included. The Aroian test confirmed that inflation did not mediate any relationships at the 5% significance level. Research Implications – The findings provide insights into the financial condition of KBMI 4 banks, support investor decision-making, and offer a reference for future research. Originality – This study integrates signaling theory, arbitrage theory, and the efficient market hypothesis, while uniquely examining inflation as a mediator of stock returns among Indonesia’s largest banks.
The Influence of Tourism Activities, Local Spending, and Macroeconomic Indicators on Provincial Economic Growth in Indonesia Hidayati Fatahillah; Ghozali Maski; Rachmad Kresna Sakti
Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi Kesatuan Vol. 14 No. 2 (2026): JIAKES Edisi April 2026
Publisher : Institut Bisnis dan Informatika Kesatuan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37641/jiakes.v14i2.4609

Abstract

This study is driven by the critical role of the tourism sector, local fiscal policies, and macroeconomic indicators in stimulating local economic growth in Indonesia, which continues to exhibit significant disparities across provinces. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of the number of domestic and international tourists, tourist spending, occupancy rates of starred and non-starred hotels, local government spending, inflation, exchange rates, and infrastructure on provincial economic growth in Indonesia for the period 2018–2023. The method used is a quantitative approach with an explanatory design using panel data from 11 provinces, which were analyzed using a Random Effects Model. The results show that only foreign tourist spending, occupancy rates of starred hotels, inflation, exchange rate, and infrastructure have a significant influence on economic growth, while other variables are insignificant. This finding indicates that tourism quality, macroeconomic stability, and infrastructure support are more determinant than tourist quantity or local government spending. The implications of this study emphasize the importance of policies that focus on increasing high-value tourism, public spending efficiency, and strengthening infrastructure and economic stability. In conclusion, local economic growth in Indonesia is more influenced by the quality and efficiency of the economy than simply increasing the volume of tourism activity.
Co-Authors Hidayati Fatahillah Muhamad Kadafi Rachmad Kresna Sakti Tyas Danarti Hascaryani