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All Journal Media Riset Ekonomi Pembangunan (MedREP)
Fandy Triawan
Departemen Ilmu Ekonomi, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Negeri Padang
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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PENGARUH INFLASI REGIONAL TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR PETANI (NTP) DI PROVINSI SUMATERA BARAT Fitri Rahmawati; Fandy Triawan
Media Riset Ekonomi Pembangunan (MedREP) Vol. 3 No. 3 (2026): MedREP: Volume 3, No. 3, Juli 2026
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

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Abstract

This study analyzes the effect of regional inflation on the Farmers Terms of Trade (FTT) in West Sumatra Province for the period 2010:Q1–2024:Q4. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method with quarterly data, this study aims to examine both short-run and long-run dynamics of the relationship between regional inflation and farmers' welfare as measured by FTT. The results of the F-Bounds Test confirm the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship. In the long run, regional inflation has a significant negative effect on FTT, with a coefficient of −222.32, indicating that a 1 percent increase in regional inflation decreases FTT by 222.32 index points. In the short run, regional inflation also has a significant negative effect at the current period, while lagged responses show a complex oscillation pattern reflecting delayed price pass-through effects. The Error Correction Term coefficient of −1.0079 confirms that the system adjusts toward long-run equilibrium at approximately 100.79 percent per quarter. These findings confirm that persistent inflationary pressure consistently erodes farmers' purchasing power through rising household consumption costs and agricultural input costs. Policy recommendations include strengthening regional price stabilization through the Regional Inflation Control Team (TPID), improving agricultural input subsidies, and enhancing market information systems. Keywords: Regional Inflation, Farmers' Terms of Trade, ARDL, West Sumatra, Agricultural Welfare.
Pengaruh Tingkat Pendidikan, Upah Minimum, Dan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Terhadap Persentase Bekerja Di Sektor Formal Di Indonesia Elfando Jafendra; Fandy Triawan
Media Riset Ekonomi Pembangunan (MedREP) Vol. 3 No. 4 (2026): MedREP: Volume 3, No. 4, Agustus 2026
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

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The percentage of workes in the formal sector represents the proportion of the labor force absorbed into the structured labor market and protected by labor laws and regulation. This study aims to analze the partial and simultaneous effects of education level, minimum wage, and the open unemployment rate on the percentage of workers in the formal sector in Indonesia. The quantitative data used in study is secondary panel data sourced from publications by Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and the Ministry of Manpower for the period 2020 to 2024, covering 34 provinces in Indonesia with a total of 170 observations. The panel data regression estimation result show that, partially, the level of education has a positive and significant effect on the percentage of workes in the formal sector, the minimum wage has a significant positive effect in linewith regional labor market dyamics, and the open unemployment rate has a positive but insignificant effect, whereas simultaneously all three independent variables have a significant effect on the percentage of formal sector workers in Indonesia. These findings emphasize the importance of integrated government policymaking to enhance human capital quality through education, establish balanced minimum wage policy formulations, and reduce unemployment rates in order to expand formal sector employment absorption that is more productive and sustainable across all regions in Indonesia.
Co-Authors Elfando Jafendra Fitri Rahmawati