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All Journal Jurnal Ilmu Pariwisata
Agustinus Walansendow
Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Pariwisata Manado
Social Sciences

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Strategi Pengembangan Paket Wisata Bahari Berbasis Kearifan Lokal Di Taman Nasional Bunaken Untuk Meningkatkan Daya Saing Destinasi Sulawesi Utara Bet El Lagarense; Nelson Alexander; Agustinus Walansendow
Jurnal Ilmu Pariwisata Vol. 4 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Ilmu Pariwisata
Publisher : UPT Penelitian Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Pariwisata Manado

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Abstract

The development of marine tourism in Bunaken National Park holds significant potential in enhancing the competitiveness of North Sulawesi’s tourism destinations. However, challenges such as ecological pressures, limited community involvement, and inadequate integration of local wisdom into tourism packages hinder destination growth. This study aims to formulate strategies for developing marine tourism packages based on local wisdom to enhance destination competitiveness using participatory approaches, community empowerment, and sustainable conservation. A qualitative approach was adopted, including case study analysis and stakeholder interviews (managers, MSMEs, and tourists). Findings suggest that integrating local cultural elements, enhancing human resource capacity, digital marketing strategies, and multi–stakeholder collaboration are essential to improving destination competitiveness. Strategic recommendations are proposed to support more innovative, inclusive, and sustainable tourism package development. The results contribute to policy development for marine tourism in Indonesia’s marine conservation areas.
Analisis Komparatif Metode Simple Moving Average Dan Single Exponential Smoothing Dalam Peramalan Kunjungan Wisatawan Domestik Dan Mancanegara Ke Provinsi Sulawesi Utara Sri Soeyati; Bet El Silisna Lagarense; Agustinus Walansendow
Jurnal Ilmu Pariwisata Vol. 4 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Ilmu Pariwisata
Publisher : UPT Penelitian Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Pariwisata Manado

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Abstract

The tourism sector in North Sulawesi Province has experienced significant fluctuations due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic since 2020, followed by a recovery phase up to 2025. This condition highlights the importance of accurate forecasting methods to support tourism planning and policy formulation. This study aims to compare the accuracy of two forecasting methods, namely Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), in predicting tourist arrivals. The study employs time series data on tourist arrivals obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of North Sulawesi Province for the period 2020–2025. The performance of both methods is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as the forecasting accuracy measure. The results indicate that the Single Exponential Smoothing method, with an appropriately selected α parameter, produces lower forecasting errors compared to the Simple Moving Average method. Therefore, SES is considered more suitable for forecasting tourist arrivals in North Sulawesi Province, which is characterized by dynamic and unstable data patterns.
Co-Authors Bet El Lagarense Bet El Silisna Lagarense Nelson Alexander Sri Soeyati