Riswan Efendi Tarigan
Department of Information Systems, Faculty of AI and Data Science, Universitas Pelita Harapan, Indonesia

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Market Regime Detection in Bitcoin Time Series Using K-Means Clustering and Hidden Markov Models Calandra A. Haryani; Chandra; Riswan Efendi Tarigan
Journal of Digital Market and Digital Currency Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026): Regular Issue March 2026
Publisher : Bright Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47738/jdmdc.v3i1.57

Abstract

The rapid growth of cryptocurrency markets has created new challenges in understanding and predicting the structural dynamics of digital asset prices. Bitcoin, as the most traded blockchain-based currency, exhibits extreme volatility, nonlinear patterns, and complex regime shifts that traditional financial models cannot adequately capture. This study proposes a hybrid analytical framework that integrates K Means clustering with the Hidden Markov Model to identify and model multiple market regimes in Bitcoin time series data. The Bitcoin dataset used in this research contains minute-level records that were preprocessed to extract key indicators, namely logarithmic returns and rolling volatility, which represent the short-term dynamics of market behavior. The K Means algorithm was first employed to segment the data into three distinct clusters that correspond to bullish, bearish, and sideways regimes, followed by the application of the Hidden Markov Model to estimate probabilistic transitions between these regimes over time. The results reveal that the hybrid K Means and Hidden Markov Model approach achieves superior performance compared to a standalone model, as indicated by a higher log likelihood and a lower Bayesian Information Criterion value. The transition probability matrix shows that bullish and bearish regimes are highly persistent, while the sideways regime acts as a transitional buffer that connects both market extremes. The empirical findings confirm that Bitcoin prices evolve through persistent and probabilistically determined regimes rather than random fluctuations. The proposed framework provides a more comprehensive understanding of cryptocurrency market dynamics and offers practical value for investors, risk analysts, and policymakers in designing adaptive trading and risk management strategies within blockchain-based financial ecosystems.
Human–AI Collaborative Retrieval-Augmented Decision Intelligence for Enterprise Knowledge Bases in Financial Services Riswan Efendi Tarigan; Kevin Ariel Zen
International Journal for Applied Information Management Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026): Regular Issue: July 2026
Publisher : Bright Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47738/ijaim.v6i2.125

Abstract

Financial service institutions increasingly require knowledge systems that can retrieve policy-relevant information, synthesize organizational evidence, and deliver explainable decision support under strict governance constraints. This study proposes a Retrieval-Augmented Decision Intelligence framework for enterprise knowledge bases in financial services by integrating semantic retrieval, metadata-aware re-ranking, grounded augmentation, and explainable response generation into a unified managerial intelligence pipeline. The framework was evaluated using enterprise-style query scenarios covering compliance clarification, product guidance, risk review support, and service resolution. The results showed that the proposed framework outperformed a baseline generative model across all major dimensions, achieving Precision@5 of 0.86 compared with 0.71, NDCG of 0.88 compared with 0.74, grounding score of 0.84 compared with 0.68, usefulness score of 0.87 compared with 0.70, and an overall effectiveness index of 0.86 compared with 0.71. Category-level analysis indicated that hybrid re-ranking improved ranking effectiveness in all query types, with NDCG increasing from 0.84 to 0.89 for compliance queries, from 0.87 to 0.91 for product guidance, from 0.82 to 0.87 for risk review support, and from 0.79 to 0.85 for service resolution. Grounding performance remained strong across categories, reaching 0.90 for compliance clarification, 0.88 for product guidance, 0.82 for risk review, and 0.79 for service resolution, demonstrating that retrieved enterprise evidence substantially constrained unsupported generation. Expert evaluation further confirmed high managerial value, with average scores of 4.4 for clarity, 4.5 for actionability, 4.3 for trustworthiness, 4.4 for interpretability, and 4.5 for decision value on a five-point scale. Failure analysis identified outdated policy retrieval, cross-document ambiguity, terminology mismatch, insufficient escalation signaling, and partial evidence coverage as the main residual weaknesses, with outdated policy retrieval accounting for 18 observed cases and cross-document ambiguity for 14. These findings indicate that retrieval-augmented architectures can move beyond information access and function as decision intelligence systems that support traceable, evidence-grounded, and operationally meaningful knowledge work in regulated financial environments.