Felly Ferol Warouw
Department of Architecture, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Negeri Manado, Indonesia

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Dynamic Model of Urban Public Cemeteries Development Strategy: Case Study of Manado City, Indonesia Hendrik Suryo Suriandjo; Doly Herling Tiagas; Felly Ferol Warouw; Aristotulus Ernst Tungka
Jurnal Wilayah dan Lingkungan Vol 14, No 1 (2026): April 2026
Publisher : Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Diponegoro University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/jwl.14.1.94-108

Abstract

The development of a policy strategy for public cemeteries through System Dynamics (SD) modeling is crucial in addressing the pressing issue of limited urban land. This research aims to formulate long-term solutions for the future cemeteries needs. Data was collected through field observations, surveys, and focus group discussions. The analysis employed a system dynamics approach, formulating two different scenarios. Two policy scenarios were developed to evaluate cemetery land sustainability. Scenario 1 represents a baseline condition with existing burial practices and no additional policy intervention. Scenario 2 incorporates integrated interventions, including land expansion, vertical burial implementation, and mortality reduction through public health improvements. The results confirm that SD provides a robust framework for conceptualizing cemetery provision as a dynamic urban policy issue rather than a static spatial allocation. Scenario Two emerges as the optimal strategy up to 2045, reducing annual deaths by 313 individuals (from 5,275 to 4,961), lowering the Crude Death Rate from a high to a moderate category, and significantly easing pressure on cemetery land. This scenario decreases the required cemetery land from 42.99 hectares to approximately 11.86 hectares and increases land carrying capacity by 16.62 hectares relative to the projected deficit. These findings demonstrate that health-oriented policies can function as indirect spatial planning instruments, extending conventional approaches to urban land management under conditions of scarcity.