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All Journal Muslim Business and Economic Review
Riadhus Shufa Al Khairi
Universitas Gadjah Mada
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Trump 2.0: Unpacking the Potential Economic Impacts on OIC Economies Riadhus Shufa Al Khairi; Muhammad Ali Mustofa
Muslim Business and Economics Review Vol. 4 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Internasional Indonesia

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Abstract

Donald Trump's trade policies during his presidency were characterized by protectionist measures, including tariff increases and trade disputes with major economies. Following his re-election, similar policies could resurface, impacting global trade dynamics. This paper aims to analyze the potential economic consequences of Trump's second leadership on OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation) economies, focusing on three key policies: (1) a tariff on steel and aluminum, (2) a trade war with China, and (3) geopolitical tensions with BRICS nations. The GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model is employed to simulate the short-run effects of these policies on GDP, trade balance, and welfare in OIC countries. The results suggest that increased tariffs and trade conflicts may lead to shifts in global trade patterns, with potential negative spillover effects on OIC economies, particularly those with strong trade ties to the US, China, and BRICS. Trade diversion effects are also observed, indicating possible shifts in export flows. The findings provide insights into how OIC nations might navigate the uncertainties of a renewed Trump administration's economic policies. Keywords: Donald Trump, OIC economies, Tariff, GTAP.
Co-Authors Muhammad Ali Mustofa