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Flypaper Effect dan Pembangunan Manusia di Jawa Tengah: Bukti Empiris dari Eks-Karesidenan Pekalongan Haryono Haryono; Reza Susatyo; Fafurida Fafurida
Al-Kharaj: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah Vol. 8 No. 8 (2026): Al-Kharaj: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah
Publisher : Intitut Agama Islam Nasional Laa Roiba Bogor

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47467/alkharaj.v8i8.12506

Abstract

The high dependence of the General Allocation Fund (DAK) on the Regional Budget (APBD) risks creating spending inefficiencies that directly impact the quality of human development. This study aims to detect the flypaper effect phenomenon and analyze the impact of fiscal decentralization on public welfare in seven regencies/cities in the former Pekalongan Residency for the 2020–2024 period. Using a panel data regression method with a Fixed Effect Model approach, this study tested two analytical models: Model 1 to detect the response of regional spending, and Model 2 to measure the impact of fiscal variables on the Human Development Index (HDI). The results of the analysis of Model 1 indicate that Regional Original Revenue (PAD) has a positive and significant effect on regional spending. The General Allocation Fund (DAU) has a positive but insignificant effect on regional spending. Evidence of the flypaper effect was found not to occur at the research locus, where there was no significant difference between the PAD coefficient and the DAU coefficient. In Model 2, PAD and DAU partially and simultaneously had a significant positive effect on the Human Development Index. This study recommends strengthening local taxing power through optimizing regional taxes and shifting the spending structure toward productive capital expenditure to improve fiscal independence and the quality of human development in a sustainable manner.
Determinants of Poverty in East Nusa Tenggara 2010-2024 Rifqi Bayu Apriyo; Fafurida Fafurida
Indonesian Interdisciplinary Journal of Sharia Economics (IIJSE) Vol 9 No 2 (2026): Sharia Economics
Publisher : Universitas KH. Abdul Chalim Mojokerto

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31538/iijse.v9i2.10043

Abstract

Poverty remains a persistent development challenge in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), reflecting structural constraints in an archipelagic region with high inter-district heterogeneity. Most previous studies on poverty determinants in NTT rely on static models and therefore have limited capacity to capture poverty persistence and potential endogeneity between poverty and its determinants. This study aims to analyze the determinants of district- and city-level poverty in NTT from 2010 to 2024 using a dynamic panel approach. The dataset comprises 22 districts and cities observed over 15 years, yielding 330 observations, and is sourced from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). Estimation is conducted using the First Difference Generalized Method of Moments (FD GMM) with one-step robust standard errors to address dynamic panel bias and endogeneity concerns. The results indicate that poverty is persistent, as shown by a positive and significant lagged poverty coefficient. Economic growth, proxied by lnGRDP, significantly reduces poverty, while human capital indicators, such as years of schooling (MYS) and life expectancy (LE), also exert significant poverty-reducing effects. In contrast, the open unemployment rate (OUR) and population size (lnPOP) are not statistically significant. Notably, the minimum wage (lnMW) is positively and significantly associated with poverty, suggesting potential employment or adjustment pressures when wage policy is misaligned with productivity. Policy implications emphasize the need for inclusive growth, strengthened investments in education and health, and a minimum wage design consistent with local productivity and labor-market structure.