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All Journal Journal of Multidisciplinary Science: MIKAILALSYS International Journal of Humanities, Education, and Social Sciences
Olaniyan Joseph Olawale
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Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Education Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Physics Social Sciences Other

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Macroeconomic Interactions in Nigeria: VECM-Based Analysis (2001-2023) Olaniyan Joseph Olawale; Adetunkasi Taiwo Flora; Aladesuyi Alademomi
International Journal of Humanities, Education, and Social Sciences Vol 4 No 2 (2026): International Journal of Humanities, Education, and Social Sciences
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/ijhess.v4i2.8769

Abstract

Understanding the dynamic relationships among major macroeconomic variables is essential for evaluating economic stability and informing policy design in developing economies such as Nigeria. This study aimed to investigate the interrelationships among Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, broad money supply (M2), interest rate, exchange rate, and unemployment in Nigeria over the period 2001–2023. Annual data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and CEIC databases and analyzed using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) implemented in Python’s statsmodels framework to capture both short-run adjustments and long-run equilibrium dynamics. The findings reveal the presence of three stable long-run cointegrating relationships among the variables. Inflation was found to respond strongly to changes in GDP, interest rates, and exchange-rate movements, whereas the effects of money supply and unemployment were relatively weaker. The results further indicate that economic growth contributes to modest reductions in unemployment, while persistent inflationary pressures and volatile interest rates tend to worsen labor-market outcomes. Exchange-rate depreciation also emerged as a major source of macroeconomic instability. Diagnostic tests suggest that the estimated model is broadly robust, although mild indications of serial correlation and multicollinearity remain. The study concludes that Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment is shaped by deep structural weaknesses that require stronger policy coordination, improved exchange-rate management, and sustained structural reforms to enhance price stability and employment outcomes. These findings contribute empirical evidence on long-run and short-run macroeconomic interactions in Nigeria and provide policy-relevant insights for strengthening economic management.
Digital Accounting Reform, Structural Instability, and Corruption Dynamics in Nigeria: A Robust Empirical Analysis Olaniyan Joseph Olawale; Obabire Akinleye Alaba
Journal of Multidisciplinary Science: MIKAILALSYS Vol 4 No 3 (2026): Journal of Multidisciplinary Science: MIKAILALSYS
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mikailalsys.v4i3.9538

Abstract

Digital transformation has become central to Nigeria’s public financial management reforms through initiatives such as the Treasury Single Account (TSA), Government Integrated Financial Management Information System (GIFMIS), and electronic procurement platforms. However, empirical evidence regarding their effectiveness in improving transparency and reducing corruption remains methodologically limited. This study integrates institution-level non-parametric analysis with macro-level structural-break modeling to evaluate whether digital accounting reforms were associated with changes in transparency and corruption dynamics in Nigeria from 2001 to 2023. Institutional data from 20 federal agencies were analyzed using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Annual national time-series data on the Corruption Perceptions Index and other governance indicators were examined using regression models incorporating Chow and Bai–Perron structural-break tests, heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors, quantile regression, and bootstrap inference. The findings reveal statistically significant post-2015 improvements in transparency and audit compliance, accompanied by reductions in financial irregularities. Structural-break analysis identified a significant regime shift temporally aligned with the implementation of the TSA and GIFMIS reforms. Robustness analyses involving alternative break dates, recursive stability tests, bootstrap inference, and quantile regression supported the consistency of these results. The findings indicate that digital accounting reforms were associated with meaningful changes in Nigeria’s corruption trajectory. This study contributes a robust empirical framework for evaluating governance reforms and demonstrates the value of combining distribution-free and break-adjusted methods in public financial management research.
Co-Authors Adetunkasi Taiwo Flora Aladesuyi Alademomi Obabire Akinleye Alaba