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All Journal Jurnal Matematika UNAND
Eko Sulistyono
Tanjungpura University
Computer Science & IT Mathematics

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Identifying Leading Hazards in Riau Islands: A Monthly Markov Chain Analysis of Disaster Dominance Patterns Nahrul Hayati; Eko Sulistyono; Andini Setyo Anggraeni; Vitri Aprilla Handayani; Sabarinsyah; Laras Devikaduri
Jurnal Matematika UNAND Vol. 15 No. 3 (2026)
Publisher : Departemen Matematika dan Sains Data FMIPA Universitas Andalas Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25077/jmua.15.3.436-448.2026

Abstract

This study analyzes disaster dominance patterns in the Riau Islands using a monthly Markov chain model with five states: non hazard (S0), hydrological (S1,flood), geomorphological (S2,landslide), meteorological (S3,extreme weather), and ecological (S4,wildfire) hazard. Based on 2019-2024 data from Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB), the research quantifies transition probabilities between hazard states and computes steady-state distributions to identify long-term risks. Key findings reveal wildfires dominate the system with 40.6% steady-state probability and high persistence (63% monthly recurrence), reflecting the region’s dry-seasonal vulnerability. Extreme weather and floods show significant but secondary prevalence (24.1% and 12.5%, respectively). Landslides are rare (2.5%) but often escalate to wildfires. The transition matrix highlights wildfire transitions following floods (44.5% probability), suggesting delayed risk cascades. Methodologically, this study advances archipelagic hazard modeling by integrating monthly timesteps and hazard taxonomy, offering granular insights for policymakers. Practical implications include prioritizing peatland restoration, flood-resistant infrastructure, and ASEAN-wide early warning systems to address transboundary haze.
Optimizing Classroom Allocation using Markov Chain Model for Shifted Lecture Schedules Nahrul Hayati; Eko Sulistyono; Bulan Purnama Utami
Jurnal Matematika UNAND Vol. 15 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Departemen Matematika dan Sains Data FMIPA Universitas Andalas Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25077/jmua.15.1.17-29.2026

Abstract

This study aims to optimize classroom allocation for shift lecture schedules at the Batam Institut of Technology (ITEBA) using a Markov chain model. Classroom utilization data from the Odd and EVen Semesters of the 2024/2025 Academic Year were analyzed by defining four classroom usage states: occupied in the morning shift and vacant in the evening shift (OV), vacant in the morning shift and occupied in the evening shift (VO), occupied in both morning and evening shifts (OO), and vacant in both morning and evening shifts (VV). State transition analysis revealed patterns in classroom allocation dynamics between semesters, while steady-state analysis projected long term utilization. The results show a steady-state probability of 74.04% for the OO state (optimal utilization), but 15.48% of classrooms remain in the VV state (chronic underutilization). Based on these findings, the study recommends a classroom consolidation strategy based on complementary patterns, implementation of a digital reservation system, and optimization of single shift usage. This study concludes that the Markov chain model provides a scientific basis for strategic decision making in educational facility management.
Co-Authors Andini Setyo Anggraeni Bulan Purnama Utami Laras Devikaduri Nahrul Hayati Sabarinsyah Vitri Aprilla Handayani