Emi Masyitah
Program Studi Akuntansi, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Potensi Utama Medan

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Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Tingkat Inflasi dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Penerimaan Pajak di Indonesia Manisha Pratiwi; Emi Masyitah
ProBisnis : Jurnal Manajemen Vol. 16 No. 06 (2025): December: Management Science
Publisher : Lembaga Riset, Publikasi dan Konsultasi JONHARIONO

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Abstract

This study aims to examine and analyze the effect of economic growth, inflation rate, and the rupiah exchange rate on tax revenue in Indonesia during the 2021–2023 period. This research is a quantitative study with an associative type, using secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and the Directorate General of Taxes (DJP). The data analysis techniques used in this study are multiple linear regression, classical assumption tests, t-test, F-test, and the coefficient of determination (R²), assisted by SPSS software. The results of this study indicate that partially, economic growth and the rupiah exchange rate have a significant effect on tax revenue, while the inflation rate does not. However, simultaneously, the three independent variables do not have a significant effect on tax revenue in Indonesia. The coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.882 shows that 88.2% of the variation in tax revenue can be explained by the three variables, while the remaining 11.8% is explained by other factors outside this study.
Pengaruh Jumlah Penduduk, Inflasi dan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Terhadap Pajak Daerah Kota Medan Tahun 2019-2023 Sabita Maghfirah; Emi Masyitah
ProBisnis : Jurnal Manajemen Vol. 16 No. 06 (2025): December: Management Science
Publisher : Lembaga Riset, Publikasi dan Konsultasi JONHARIONO

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Abstract

This research aims to analyze the influence of population, inflation, and Regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on local tax revenue in Medan City in the period of 2019 to 2023. Local tax is one of the main sources of income of the local government which is greatly influenced by macroeconomic and demographic conditions. This research uses a quantitative approach with secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and other related agencies. The analysis technique used is multiple linear regression, with the help of SPSS software version 25. The analysis results show that simultaneously, population variables, inflation, and PDRB have a significant effect on local tax revenue. Partially, the population and PDRB show a positive and significant effect, which means that the greater the population and PDRB, the more local tax revenue tends to increase. Meanwhile, inflation shows a negative effect on local tax revenue, although it is not always statistically significant. This indicates that high price fluctuations can reduce people's purchasing power and hinder economic activity, which ultimately has an impact on a decrease in tax revenue. By understanding the influence of these three variables, local governments are expected to be able to design fiscal policies that are more responsive to economic and demographic dynamics, in order to optimize the potential for regional tax revenue in a sustainable manner. This research also provides empirical contributions in the study of regional economics, especially in the context of regional financial management.