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All Journal Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah IIJSE
Salsabila, Adin
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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The Impact of Trade War on Fiscal Revenue Through Trade Taxes in 5 Asian Countries Salsabila, Adin; Azwardi, Azwardi; Sukanto, Sukanto
Indonesian Interdisciplinary Journal of Sharia Economics (IIJSE) Vol 9 No 2 (2026): Sharia Economics
Publisher : Universitas KH. Abdul Chalim Mojokerto

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31538/iijse.v9i2.10661

Abstract

The trade war between the United States and China, which began in 2018, has triggered shifts in trade flows and the relocation of investments to various Asian countries. These developments have the potential to affect fiscal revenue through changes in international trade tax revenue. This study aims to analyze the effects of imports, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exchange rates, and the trade war on international trade tax revenue in five Asian countries during the period 2010–2023. This study employs panel data regression using the Fixed Effects Model (FEM). The results indicate that imports and exchange rates have a positive and significant effect on international trade tax revenue. Conversely, GDP has a negative effect, suggesting a shift in the government’s revenue sources from trade taxes toward domestic taxes as the economy grows. The trade war dummy variable also has a positive and significant effect, indicating that the U.S.–China trade war increased international trade tax revenue in several Asian countries through the diversion of trade flows and the relocation of economic activities. These findings suggest that global trade dynamics play an important role in shaping a country’s fiscal revenue.
The United States–China trade war and economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region: Evidence from APEC economies Salsabila, Adin; Azwardi, Azwardi; Sukanto, Sukanto
Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah Vol. 14 No. 3 (2026): Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah
Publisher : Program Magister Ilmu Ekonomi Pascasarjana Universitas Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22437/ppd.v14i3.55560

Abstract

In an open economy, global uncertainties such as trade wars can affect regional economic stability. This study analyses the relationship between the United States–China trade war and economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region from 2000 to 2024. Specifically, it examines the short-run and long-run relationships of economic growth with exports, foreign direct investment (FDI), and household final consumption, while incorporating a trade war period dummy in the short-run specification. The study contributes to the literature by examining the dynamic role of household consumption alongside exports and FDI using the Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) approach across nineteen APEC economies. The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship, while the negative and statistically significant error correction term indicates convergence toward equilibrium. In the long run, exports are positively and significantly associated with economic growth, whereas FDI and household final consumption are negatively and significantly associated with economic growth. In the short run, exports, FDI, and household final consumption are positively and significantly associated with economic growth, while the trade war dummy variable is statistically insignificant. This result indicates that the estimated model provides no evidence of a direct aggregate association between the U.S.–China trade war period and economic growth across the sampled APEC economies. Overall, the findings highlight distinct short-run and long-run relationships between economic growth and trade, investment, and domestic demand during a period of heightened United States–China trade tensions, while the common trade war period dummy shows no statistically significant short-run association with economic growth.
Co-Authors Azwardi Azwardi Sukanto Sukanto Sukanto Sukanto