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All Journal Moneter : Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan
Muh. Rudi Nugroho
Universitas Islam Negeri Sunan Kalijaga Yogyakarta
Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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The Impact of Monetary Policy Transmission on Economic Growth in Sumatra Island Dina Octaviani; Muh. Rudi Nugroho
Moneter: Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan Vol. 14 No. 1 (2026): APRIL
Publisher : Universitas Ibn Khladun Bogor

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32832/moneter.v14i1.2693

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of monetary policy transmission channels on economic growth across all provinces in Sumatra Island from 2015 to 2025. The variables examined include the BI Rate (X1), Inflation (X2), Money Supply (X3), and Exchange Rate (X4), with Economic Growth (Y) as the dependent variable. Utilizing quarterly secondary panel data sourced from Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), this study employs a Panel Data Regression approach. Based on the Chow and Hausman tests, the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) was selected as the best estimation model. The results of the partial analysis (t-test) show that the BI Rate has a significant positive effect on economic growth, while the Money Supply has a significant negative effect. Conversely, Inflation and the Exchange Rate do not show any significant impact on economic growth in Sumatra. Simultaneously (F-test), all independent variables significantly influence economic growth. The Adjusted R-squared value indicates that the monetary variables simultaneously explain 14.74% of the variation in economic growth, while the remaining 85.26% is explained by other factors outside the model.
The Shift in Money Recognition in Indonesia: The Impact of Inflation, Interest Rates, and Innovation in Digital Payment Systems May Husnul Khotimah; Muh. Rudi Nugroho
Moneter: Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan Vol. 14 No. 1 (2026): APRIL
Publisher : Universitas Ibn Khladun Bogor

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32832/moneter.v14i1.2969

Abstract

This study estimates the dynamics of money demand in Indonesia by integrating inflation, interest rates, and electronic money (e-money). Utilizing the Error Correction Model (ECM), this research analyzes both long-run and short-run dynamics, emphasizing the role of digitalization. The results indicate that in the long run, inflation, interest rates, and e-money exert positive and significant effects on money demand. Higher inflation drives transaction-driven liquidity, while the positive impact of interest rates reflects a precautionary motive amid economic uncertainty. Additionally, e-money complements physical currency by accelerating the velocity of money. Conversely, the short-run ECM estimations show no significant effects, confirming an adaptation lag to macroeconomic and technological changes before reaching equilibrium. Overall, long-term transactions and digital payments remain the primary drivers of money demand. Therefore, monetary authorities must maintain price and interest rate stability while strengthening digital payment infrastructure to support national economic stability.
Co-Authors Dina Octaviani May Husnul Khotimah