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Apriyanty Aprianty
Universitas Al Washliyah Darussalam Banda Aceh, Banda Aceh

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Analisis Trend dan Peramalan Nilai Tukar Nelayan (NTN) di Provinsi Aceh Tahun 2016-2035 Apriyanty Aprianty; Melda Yulisa; Ariz Zaputra; Jainul Ubaidillah; Nasyatul Ula; Kartika Selytias Utami
Jurnal Agrisep Vol. 27 No. 1 (2026): Volume 27 Nomor 1 Juni 2026
Publisher : Departemen Agribisnis, Fakultas Pertanian, Universitas Syiah Kuala associated with AAI (Asosiasi Agribisnis Indonesia). Jl. Tgk. Hasan Krueng Kalee No. 3, Kopelma Darussalam, Banda Aceh, 23111, Indonesia. Email: agrisep@usk.ac.id

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17969/agrisep.v27i1.1993

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the trend and forecast of the Fishermen’s Terms of Trade (Nilai Tukar Nelayan/NTN) in Aceh Province. The research used a quantitative approach with secondary time series data from Statistics Indonesia covering actual NTN values from 2016 to 2025. Trend analysis was conducted using a second-order polynomial model, while forecasting was carried out for 2026–2035. The results show that NTN in Aceh Province fluctuated during 2016–2025. NTN was below 100 in 2016, 2017, and 2020, indicating pressure on fishermen’s purchasing power. After 2020, NTN generally improved and reached its highest value in 2025. The polynomial trend model indicates a positive development pattern, suggesting a gradual improvement in fishermen’s purchasing power. This model was considered appropriate because NTN moved in a fluctuating pattern rather than following a strictly linear trend. Forecasting results show that NTN is estimated to increase from 118.72 in 2026 to 162.65 in 2035. These findings indicate potential long-term improvement in fishermen’s purchasing power. However, the forecast should be interpreted as an estimation based on historical patterns, not as a definite future value. Therefore, policies to strengthen market access, stabilize fish prices, reduce operational costs, and improve fishing facilities remain necessary to ensure that rising NTN reflects real improvements in fishermen’s welfare.
Co-Authors Ariz Zaputra Jainul Ubaidillah Kartika Selytias Utami Melda Yulisa Nasyatul Ula