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All Journal Mandala: Jurnal Ilmu Hubungan Internasional
Nosami Rikadi Saktinegara
Universitas Dian Nusantara
Social Sciences

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The Afghanistan-Pakistan Conflict (2025): Regional Security Complex Theory and Sub-Regional Insecurity Nosami Rikadi Saktinegara
Mandala: Jurnal Ilmu Hubungan Internasional Vol 9 No 1 (2026): Mandala: Jurnal Ilmu Hubungan Internasional
Publisher : Fakultas Ilmu Sosial Ilmu Politik, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional "Veteran" Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33822/mjihi.v9i1.13341

Abstract

The Afghanistan-Pakistan clash in October 2025 represents a critical episode in South Asian security, revealing how state fragility, transnational militant networks, and contested borders generate recurring instability. This article applies Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) to explain why Afghanistan and Pakistan constitute a tightly coupled sub-regional security complex characterized by high security interdependence and persistent mutual securitization. Using a qualitative, theory-driven research design drawing on institutional reports, conflict-event data, and policy-oriented literature, the study demonstrates that the 2025 escalation was structurally shaped by enduring historical enmity, the operational autonomy of non-state armed groups, and altered patterns of external power penetration following the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan. The findings show that bilateral crisis management and ad hoc confidence-building measures are insufficient in contexts of entrenched regional insecurity. This article argues that the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict constitutes an autonomous sub-regional security complex in which non-state armed groups function as structural drivers of insecurity rather than merely episodic triggers of violence. Keywords: Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict; Regional Security Complex Theory; sub-regional security; non-state armed groups; border governance.
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