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All Journal International Journal of Informatics, Information System and Computer Engineering (INJIISCOM)
Bagus Abdul Muiz
Department of Electrical Engineering, Universitas Komputer Indonesia, Indonesia
Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mechanical Engineering

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A Time-Adaptive Ensemble Framework for Multi-Year University Ranking Prediction Integrating Outlier-Aware Scoring and Hybrid Feature Selection Muhammad Aria Rajasa Pohan; Bagus Abdul Muiz
International Journal of Informatics, Information System and Computer Engineering (INJIISCOM) Vol. 7 No. 1 (2026): INJIISCOM: VOLUME 7, ISSUE 1, JUNE 2026 (ONLINE FIRST)
Publisher : Universitas Komputer Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34010/injiiscom.v7i1.16682

Abstract

University ranking prediction requires adaptive models to capture temporal dynamics and handle data anomalies. This study develops a time-adaptive ensemble framework integrating outlier-aware scoring and hybrid feature selection. Using Times Higher Education data (2011–2024), we applied windowed outlier detection with clipping and masking, alongside ANOVA, permutation importance, and SHAP values for dynamic feature selection. The framework ensembles linear moving-average, temporal Random Forest, and LSTM models via optimized weights. Rolling forecasts (2016–2024) yielded a low mean rank deviation of 1.2 positions and a Top-1000 classification accuracy of 0.96, outperforming single baselines. This robust, interpretable framework effectively supports strategic decision-making and resource allocation in higher education
Co-Authors Muhammad Aria Rajasa Pohan