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All Journal Jurnal Teknik Industri Terintegrasi (JUTIN)
Benaputri Roswati
Sekolah Tinggi Teknologi Migas, Balikpapan
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Energy Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mechanical Engineering

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Evaluasi Decline Curve Analysis untuk Peramalan Produksi dan Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) pada Lapangan SWIFT Sumur S-6 Benaputri Roswati
Jurnal Teknik Industri Terintegrasi (JUTIN) Vol. 9 No. 3 (2026): July
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Pahlawan Tuanku Tambusai

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31004/jutin.v9i3.61181

Abstract

Oil production decline must be evaluated to estimate future well performance and Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR). This study aimed to evaluate the Exponential, Harmonic, and Hyperbolic Decline models for SWIFT Field Well S-6 and determine the most suitable model for production forecasting. Decline Curve Analysis was applied to historical production data from day 1 to day 1245, which were converted into monthly production data and divided into Trend 1 and Trend 2. For the Hyperbolic Decline model, the b values for Trend 1 and Trend 2 were determined using a trial-and-error approach, and model performance was evaluated using qi, Di, b, RMSE, and R². The results showed that the Hyperbolic Decline model provided the best fit for Trend 1, while the Harmonic Decline model was the best for Trend 2 with an RMSE of 2.0945 STB/day and an R² of 0.9282. The Harmonic Decline model was selected for production forecasting until the 5 STB/day economic limit, resulting in an Estimated Ultimate Recovery of 241,732.43 STB.
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