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All Journal Smart Techno (Smart Technology, Informatic and Technopreneurship)
Putra, Aldho Chahya Vinada
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Computer Science & IT

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Design and Implementation of a Web-Based Mobile Phone Sales Forecasting Application Using the Single Exponential Smoothing Method Putra, Aldho Chahya Vinada; Dasuki, Moh.; Qodariyah Fitriyah, Nur
Smart Techno (Smart Technology, Informatics and Technopreneurship) Article in Press
Publisher : Primakara University

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Abstract

This study was conducted to address the inventory management issues at iCare Apple Store, where mobile phone stock planning has traditionally relied on estimation, leading to the risk of both stock shortages and overstocking. The objective of this study was to design and implement a web-based mobile phone sales forecasting application using the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method. The dataset consisted of monthly sales data for the iPhone XR and iPhone XS from January 2021 to December 2024. The forecasting process was performed by testing alpha values ranging from 0.1 to 0.9, while forecasting accuracy was evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results indicated that the optimal alpha value for the iPhone XR was 0.1, yielding a MAPE of 27.04% and a forecast of 11.45 units, which was rounded to 11 units. For the iPhone XS, the forecasting model produced a MAPE of 52.33% with a forecast of 2.45 units, rounded to 2 units. These findings demonstrate that the Single Exponential Smoothing method can be effectively implemented in a web-based application and can support decision-making in determining appropriate inventory levels for subsequent periods.
Co-Authors Dasuki, Moh. Fitriyah, Nur Qodariyah