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All Journal International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering International Journal of Applied Power Engineering (IJAPE)
Dyner, Isaac
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Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering

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Analysis of geothermal technology development in the Colombian energy transition to 2050 using system dynamics Carreño, Diego Alberto; Dyner, Isaac; Sanint, Enrique Ángel; Aristizábal, Andrés Julián
International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) Vol 15, No 3: June 2025
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijece.v15i3.pp2523-2533

Abstract

This research analyzes the current and future prospects of geothermal energy in Colombia using a system dynamics model. The study focuses on evaluating geothermal potential linked to hydrothermal systems, surface manifestations like geysers, and areas near volcanoes. The model, projecting up to 2050, offers a comprehensive assessment of national geothermal potential, considering technical, economic, regulatory, and social factors that influence its integration into the energy matrix. Key findings highlight the need for adjustments to the existing regulatory framework, which currently lacks sufficient incentives for geothermal project development. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of implementing stronger government policies and incentives to promote this renewable energy source. Proper social and environmental management, with active involvement of local communities, is also identified as crucial for project success. The system dynamics approach effectively models the complex interrelationships between variables shaping the future of geothermal energy in Colombia. The developed model serves as a novel tool for technological foresight in this strategic field, identifying obstacles and opportunities to unlock Colombia's significant geothermal potential and providing a systemic perspective on this critical issue for the national energy transition.
Assessment of the integration of electric vehicles into the Colombian market by 2050 using system dynamics Gálvez, Juan Camilo; Dyner, Isaac; Sanint, Enrique Ángel; Aristizábal, Andrés Julián
International Journal of Applied Power Engineering (IJAPE) Vol 14, No 2: June 2025
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijape.v14.i2.pp421-431

Abstract

This article focuses on evaluating the prospects and potential that Colombia possesses for achieving a complete transition to electric vehicles (EV), with the goal of reaching a 100% penetration of such vehicles by the year 2050. To address this challenge, four potential scenarios are proposed, each based on different approaches and strategies. To achieve the objective described in the article, a simulation modeling approach was employed. Through this process, a definitive model was obtained that enables a visual representation of the progress of the different scenarios over the years. This graphical representation offers a clear insight into which scenarios align with the established parameters to achieve the target of nearly 100% electric vehicle adoption in Colombia by 2050. Additionally, there is a considerable reduction in CO2 emissions produced by the transportation sector in Colombia, with a 27% decrease compared to 2023. This is noteworthy given that the number of vehicles in 2050 is expected to be significantly higher than in the initial period, thus beginning a phase of declining pollution in the country.
Co-Authors Aristizabal, Andres Julian Carreño, Diego Alberto Gálvez, Juan Camilo Sanint, Enrique Ángel