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p-Index From 2021 - 2026
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All Journal Journal of Applied Business, Taxation and Economics Reseach
Zulfitra Zulfitra
Faculty of Economics and Business, Pamulang University
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Sensitivity Analysis of Investment Feasibility Assessments and Monte Carlo Risk Analysis in High-Profile Real Estate Companies Imam Sofyan Lubis; Sugiyanto Sugiyanto; Zulfitra Zulfitra
Journal of Applied Business, Taxation and Economics Research Vol. 5 No. 6 (2026): August 2026
Publisher : PT. EQUATOR SINAR AKADEMIA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54408/jabter.v5i6.640

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the feasibility of investment development using investment analysis methods, including the payback period (PP), Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and profitability index, which are part of the capital budgeting method. Furthermore, this study is expected to provide a framework for financial feasibility studies with various scenarios. Through calculations using the PP, NPV, and IRR methods, it is hoped that property companies can make decisions and analyze whether investment capital can be returned according to a predetermined schedule with an acceptable level of risk. Additionally, this study evaluates the risks that may arise during the development process using Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis. Based on the research findings, the researcher concludes that investment development using PP, NPV, IRR, and PI in high-profile property projects is feasible. The development of high-profile property projects using Monte Carlo simulations involves elements of uncertainty.
An Analysis of Overreaction in Global Commodity Markets and Its Impact on Indonesia's Financial Markets: Empirical Evidence from The JCI And The Rupiah Exchange Rate Master Irfan Ibrahim; Masno Marjohan; Zulfitra Zulfitra
Journal of Applied Business, Taxation and Economics Research Vol. 5 No. 6 (2026): August 2026
Publisher : PT. EQUATOR SINAR AKADEMIA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54408/jabter.v5i6.676

Abstract

This study empirically examines the overreaction phenomenon in global commodity markets and its transmission to Indonesia's capital market and foreign exchange indicators, specifically the effect of crude oil and gold price overreaction—proxied through price-reversal indicators (abnormal return)—on the Abnormal Return of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI/IHSG) and the Rupiah exchange rate. Daily time-series data over a five-year formation period (2021-2025) were analyzed using the Wilcoxon Signed-Ranks Test, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, and the Newey-West HAC Standard Errors and Covariance approach to mitigate structural heteroskedasticity. Findings demonstrate a significant overreaction phenomenon across all winner and loser portfolios for both gold and crude oil. Partial hypothesis testing shows that gold price overreaction has no significant effect on the JCI, yet exerts a negative and significant effect on the Rupiah, supporting Asset Substitution Theory and flight-to-quality behavior. Conversely, crude oil overreaction exerts a positive but marginal effect on the JCI, and a negative and significant effect on the Rupiah, validating the Balance of Payments Structure Theory given Indonesia's status as a net oil importer. Overall, global commodity overreaction transmits more responsively toward exchange-rate stability than toward domestic capital-market performance.
Co-Authors Imam Sofyan Lubis Masno Marjohan Master Irfan Ibrahim Sugiyanto Sugiyanto