Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2021 - 2026
0.23
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal EKONOMIS : Journal of Economics and Business
Putu Permana Bagiada
The Audit Board of the Republic of Indonesia
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Published : 1 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 1 Documents
Search

 1 
Dynamics of Inflation and Unemployment: Applying Threshold Models to Assess Critical Points in the Economy in Indonesia Luh Sri Marlina; Ni Luh Rosinta Yogantari; Muhammad Rafi Bakri; Putu Permana Bagiada
Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business Vol 10, No 2 (2026): September
Publisher : Universitas Batanghari Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33087/ekonomis.v10i2.2972

Abstract

This study examines the nonlinear relationship between inflation and unemployment in Indonesia using a panel threshold regression model. Utilizing data from 34 provinces over the period 2016–2023, the analysis identifies a single significant inflation threshold at 1.9 percent. Below this threshold, inflation significantly increases the open unemployment rate, whereas inflation above 1.9 percent reduces unemployment. The results remain robust when the sample is divided into pre-COVID (2016–2019) and post-COVID (2020–2023) periods, although the relevant thresholds rise to 2.68 percent and 3.11 percent after the pandemic. Higher per-capita income, regional economic output, and educational attainment significantly lower unemployment, while higher minimum wages, poverty levels, and democracy scores are associated with higher unemployment. These findings support the short-run Phillips Curve in a regime-dependent framework and highlight the importance of maintaining moderate inflation above the identified thresholds, accompanied by policies that strengthen human capital and income growth. The study contributes to the literature by providing the first provincial-level threshold estimates of the inflation–unemployment nexus in Indonesia and by incorporating institutional and human-capital controls.
Co-Authors Luh Sri Marlina Muhammad Rafi Bakri Ni Luh Rosinta Yogantari