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Tamam Rosid
Development Economics Study Program, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Muhammadiyah Berau, East Kalimantan, Indonesia
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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BERAU 2045: POPULATION DYNAMICS TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Rustam Rustam; Tamam Rosid
Economics Studies and Banking Journal (DEMAND) Vol. 3 No. 8 (2026): Economics Studies and Banking Journal (DEMAND)
Publisher : Penelitian dan Pengembangan Ilmu

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62207/5647q192

Abstract

Berau Regency is one of the districts in East Kalimantan Province that has experienced an acceleration in population growth in the last decade, in line with its position as a buffer area for the Capital City of the archipelago (IKN). This article aims to analyse the population dynamics of Berau Regency and its implications for the sustainable development agenda towards 2045. The research uses a descriptive-quantitative approach based on secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of Berau Regency, One Data of Berau Regency, and SINTA-indexed scientific literature in 2023–2026. The results show that the population of Berau has increased from 248,035 people (2020 Population Census) to 288,943 people (BPS 2024 projection), with a population growth rate (CAGR) that accelerated from 2.19 per cent (2014–2019) to 4.46 per cent (2019–2024). The age structure of the population in 2024 is dominated by the productive age (67.01%), indicating that the demographic bonus window has not been fully utilised, reflected in the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT), which has actually risen to 5.15 per cent. Berau's Human Development Index (HDI) will reach 77.17 in 2024, in the high category, but still 1.62 points below the average of East Kalimantan Province. The author's three projected scenarios produce an estimated population in 2045 in the range of 455 thousand to 722 thousand people, while other literature projects a surge of up to 1.5 million people in 2044 due to inbound migration related to IKN. This article recommends strengthening population data governance, investment in education and job skills, anticipatory spatial planning, and mitigation of post-mining environmental risks so that Berau's population growth becomes a capital for sustainable development, not a burden.
REDUCING ECONOMIC LEAKAGE: OPTIMIZING LOCAL RESOURCES THROUGH VALUE CHAINS AND APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY IN KAMPUNG BERAU Tamam Rosid; Yofi Ayuningtias
Economics Studies and Banking Journal (DEMAND) Vol. 3 No. 8 (2026): Economics Studies and Banking Journal (DEMAND)
Publisher : Penelitian dan Pengembangan Ilmu

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62207/h85xrq45

Abstract

Economic leakage is a structural challenge that hinders the optimisation of development benefits for local communities, including in coastal and inland villages of Berau Regency, East Kalimantan. This article critically examines the pattern of economic leakage in the value chain of local resources of Berau Village, with Derawan Island Village as an illustration of the case of a leading marine tourism destination, and formulates optimisation strategies through strengthening the value chain and the application of appropriate technology (TTG). The research uses a descriptive-analytical qualitative approach based on literature studies and official secondary data analysis (BPS Berau Regency, BPS East Kalimantan Province, Satu Data Berau Regency) combined with a synthesis of SINTA- and Scopus-indexed literature published in 2021–2026. The results of the study identified four main points of economic leakage, namely the sale of raw materials without added value, the lack of local processing technology, the dominance of foreign ownership in the accommodation sector and tour operators, and tourist spending which is mostly absorbed outside the village. The novelty of this article lies in the conceptual framework of the "Village Circular Value Chain Model", which integrates MSME clustering, appropriate technology, Village-Owned Enterprises (BUMK) institutions, and digital marketing, accompanied by a proposed Local Leakage Index (LLI) indicator as a measurement instrument for advanced primary research.
VILLAGE-BASED RESOURCE ECONOMY: SYNERGY OF VILLAGE-OWNED ENTERPRISES (BUMK), APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY, AND VALUE CHAINS FOR BERAU'S ECONOMIC INDEPENDENCE Tamam Rosid; Yofi Ayuningtias
Economics Studies and Banking Journal (DEMAND) Vol. 3 No. 8 (2026): Economics Studies and Banking Journal (DEMAND)
Publisher : Penelitian dan Pengembangan Ilmu

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62207/n60kk743

Abstract

The economic independence of villages in Indonesia is still constrained by three interrelated structural problems: the potential of superior products that have not been optimally managed, unequal market access, and low adoption of appropriate technologies at the upstream value chain level. This research aims to develop an integrative model of synergy among Village-Owned Enterprises (BUMK), appropriate technology, and strengthening the value chain as an instrument of village-based economic independence, with a case study of Berau Regency, East Kalimantan. The novelty of the research lies in the formulation of the "Triple-Chain Convergence" model, which integrates three chains at once, namely the production chain (upstream), the technology chain (process), and the market chain (downstream), into one measurable SOE governance framework, different from previous studies that generally discussed the three aspects partially. The method used is a descriptive-analytical qualitative approach with document studies, triangulation of official secondary data (Ministry of Villages and Rural Development, BPS, Berau Regency Community and Village Empowerment Office), and systematic review of 18 Sinta- and Scopus-indexed journal articles published in 2022–2025. The results of the study show that BUMKs in Berau Regency, which totalled eight active pilot units at the 2024 East Kalimantan Bumdes Expo, face major obstacles to upstream value chain efficiency and digital literacy limitations, but show the potential for significant turnover increases when appropriate technology and digital platforms are adopted simultaneously. The theoretical contribution of this research is to expand the framework of Community-Led Development with a spiritual-ethical dimension from the perspective of economic Sufism, which positions BUMK not just as an administrative entity but as a testament (medium) of collective blessings. The practical implication is concrete policy recommendations for the Berau Regency Government in designing a roadmap for strengthening BUMK based on superior product clusters.
Co-Authors Rustam Rustam Yofi Ayuningtias