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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Basri Badyalina
Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi Mara, Indonesia
Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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A HYBRID ARIMA-DISCRETE WAVELET TRANSFORM MODEL FOR ENHANCED COASTAL SEA LEVEL FORECASTING Hakami Ali Mohammed; Muhammad Fadhil Marsani; Mohd Shareduwan Mohd Kasihmuddin; Farid Zamani Che Rose; Basri Badyalina
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 4 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss4pp2783-2798

Abstract

Accurate sea level forecasting is essential for coastal resilience, as rising sea levels threaten coastal residents, infrastructure, and ecosystems, heightening the hazards of floods and erosion; yet, conventional models struggle with non-linear trends. This study proposes a hybrid ARIMA-DWT (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Discrete Wavelet Transform) model to enhance prediction accuracy by decomposing sea level data into linear (ARIMA) and non-linear (DWT) components. The hybrid model, utilizing monthly sea level data from Penang, Malaysia (1984–2018; N=408), diminished errors by 20% compared to the standalone ARIMA, attaining out-of-sample RMSE=81.76, MAE=68.40, and MAPE=2.45%. The ARIMA-DWT framework effectively captures long-term climate trends and short-term variations, providing a computationally efficient resource for coastal planners. This method demonstrates enhanced efficacy in situations characterized by significant seasonality, offering practical insights for climate adaptation. This research enhances the existing body of work on hybrid forecasting techniques by providing a scalable framework for areas vulnerable to sea level rise.
Co-Authors Farid Zamani Che Rose Hakami Ali Mohammed Mohd Shareduwan Mohd Kasihmuddin Muhammad Fadhil Marsani