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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Nadya Lovita Hana Trisa
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, Indonesia
Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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MODELING POVERTY SEVERITY INDEX IN EASTERN INDONESIA BASED ON NONPARARAMETRIC SPLINE TRUNCATED APPROACH FOR PANEL DATA Dita Amelia; Suliyanto Suliyanto; Najwa Khoir Aldawiyah; Kimberly Maserati Siagian; Nadinta Kasih Amalia Suryono; Nadya Lovita Hana Trisa
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 4 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss4pp2919-2936

Abstract

Poverty severity remains a critical issue in Eastern Indonesia, where rates are consistently higher than in other regions. This study examines the Poverty Severity Index (P2) using parametric panel regression and nonparametric truncated splines for panel data across 17 provinces for the period 2020 to 2024. The predictor variables include per capita expenditure, mean years of schooling, and unmet need for health services. The secondary data were obtained from the official website of Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). The parametric FEM produces a within R² of 36.9% and an MSE of 0.00912, which provides a baseline assessment of overall trends and global relationships among variables. In parallel, the first-order truncated spline model with two knot points which produces specific-province models, achieves an R² of 99.87% and an MSE of 0.00044. This model captures detailed province-specific patterns and nonlinearities and offers additional descriptive insight into regional variations in poverty severity. Together, these complementary approaches highlight both global and local dynamics and inform policy decisions that address economic, educational, and healthcare disparities in high-poverty regions especially in Eastern Indonesia.
Co-Authors Dita Amelia Kimberly Maserati Siagian Nadinta Kasih Amalia Suryono Najwa Khoir Aldawiyah Suliyanto