Muhammad Nur Aidi
School of Data Science, Mathematics, and Informatics, IPB University, Indonesia

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MULTILEVEL ITEM RESPONSE THEORY MODEL USING MML-GHQ METHOD FOR HIERARCHICAL DATA Alona Dwinata; Anang Kurnia; Aji Hamim Wigena; Muhammad Nur Aidi
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 4 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss4pp3259-3270

Abstract

Hierarchical item response data require a multilevel approach to capture the diversity of respondent abilities and item characteristics by separating variations between examinees and schools to make item parameter and ability estimates more precise. This study aims to develop a two-parameter logistic multilevel item response theory (MIRT 2PL) model, employing the maximum marginal likelihood method with Gauss-Hermite quadrature (MML-GHQ) to estimate the rank order of examinees’ abilities. This study specifically investigates the efficiency and accuracy of the MIRT 2PL model with MML-GHQ to predict the ability rankings of examinees. The research incorporates both simulated and empirical data. The simulation study generated item response data under a two-level hierarchical structure, where examinees were nested within schools. The population consisted of 50 schools, with 20–30 students per school and five items. Each examinee’s ability was modelled as a combination of school-level and individual-level effects, under two conditions of school variability: high (τ = 1.2) and low (τ = 0.6). Random samples were drawn from the population, and the sampling process was repeated 10 times to assess consistency. The analysis included estimating item parameters, variance components, and examinees’ abilities using the EAP approach. Model performance was evaluated using RMSE, Spearman correlation, and computation time. Results indicated that MML-GHQ produced accurate and consistent rank estimates, particularly under high school variability. Using PISA data, increasing the number of schools, students, and items in the empirical data yielded results consistent with the simulation study. In conclusion, the MIRT 2PL model with MML-GHQ offers an effective and efficient alternative for estimating ability rankings in hierarchical item response data.
MODIFYING MIXED MODEL NEURAL NETWORKS FOR UNIT-LEVEL PROPORTION SMALL AREA ESTIMATION Ade Riyawan; Muhammad Nur Aidi; Budi Susetyo; Anang Kurnia
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 4 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss4pp3323-3340

Abstract

This paper develops a Small Area Estimation Mixed Model Neural Network (SAE-MNN) for unit-level estimation of area-level proportions under clustered binary responses. The method is motivated by a limitation of conventional generalized linear mixed model (GLMM)-based small area estimation, namely the linear specification of the fixed-effects component on the latent scale, which may be inadequate when auxiliary variables exhibit nonlinear effects and higher-order interactions. The proposed model replaces the linear predictor with a neural-network-based nonlinear function while retaining area-level random effects within a likelihood-based mixed-model framework. Thus, SAE-MNN combines nonlinear function approximation with the borrowing-strength mechanism required for coherent small area inference. The method is evaluated through a controlled simulation study and a real-data application. The simulation study considers four scenarios generated by combining two predictor structures (linear and interaction-based nonlinear) with two levels of between-area heterogeneity (small and large), and compares SAE-MNN with a conventional GLMM and a standard deep neural network (DNN). SAE-MNN performs robustly across all scenarios and is especially effective when nonlinear interaction and substantial area-level heterogeneity coexist. In the most complex scenario, SAE-MNN attains the lowest median RRMSE (8.389%), compared with 11.474% for GLMM and 18.826% for DNN, while maintaining empirical coverage between 0.89 and 0.94. In the real-data application, using KSA segment-level harvest proportions to estimate subdistrict-level monthly harvest proportions, SAE-MNN shows the closest overall agreement with the direct estimator, reproduces the main temporal pattern more faithfully than GLMM, and yields moderate shrinkage without excessive smoothing. Overall, the results indicate that SAE-MNN provides a principled compromise between the rigidity of GLMM and the purely predictive character of DNN, thereby extending hybrid small area estimation methodology to binary and proportional outcomes in data-rich settings with nonlinear auxiliary information and area-level heterogeneity.