<![CDATA[This research analyzes the legal implications of the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) policy change on legal certainty for foreign investment, focusing on Chinese investment in Indonesia's nickel downstream sector. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation Number 17 of 2025 fundamentally changes the RKAB system from a three-year to an annual plan while imposing a 30% nickel production cut to stabilize global prices and preserve national reserves. Using normative legal research with statutory and conceptual approaches, this study examines Law Number 25 of 2007 on Investment, Law Number 3 of 2020 on Mineral and Coal Mining, and relevant implementing regulations. The findings reveal that the annual RKAB approval system and production restrictions disrupt long-term investment planning, threaten mining service contracts, and create significant raw material deficits for domestic smelters, potentially violating the principles of legal certainty, business security, and equal treatment guaranteed under Indonesian investment law. From an international law perspective, these substantial regulatory changes raise concerns regarding indirect expropriation and compliance with fair and equitable treatment standards under the Indonesia–China Bilateral Investment Treaty. The study concludes that while the government's objectives price stabilization, reserve sustainability, and resource sovereignty are legitimate, the sudden implementation without adequate transition mechanisms creates normative tension between sectoral regulatory goals and foreign investment protection. Stronger regulatory coordination, transparent and participatory policymaking, transitional arrangements with reasonable grace periods, and appropriate compensation mechanisms are therefore necessary to maintain investment certainty while safeguarding Indonesia's national interests in its strategic nickel downstream industry.]]>
