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All Journal Journal of Information Systems and Informatics Formatif : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan MIPA
Abdillah
University of Muhammadiyah Mataram
Computer Science & IT

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A Hybrid ACO-BPNN-XGBoost Model for Monthly Rainfall Time-Series Forecasting Syaharuddin; Safaruddin; Vera Mandailina; Abdillah; Mahsup
Journal of Information System and Informatics Vol 8 No 4 (2026): August
Publisher : Asosiasi Doktor Sistem Informasi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63158/journalisi.v8i4.1693

Abstract

This study aimed to develop and evaluate a hybrid forecasting model integrating Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN), and XGBoost for monthly rainfall prediction. The proposed hybrid framework combines optimization, neural network, and boosting techniques within a single forecasting model. Monthly rainfall time-series data from 2016 to 2025 in Alas Subdistrict, Sumbawa Regency, West Nusa Tenggara, were used, comprising 120 observations obtained from BPS, BMKG, and NASA POWER. The methodology included data preprocessing, an 80%–20% chronological training–testing split, model development, and performance evaluation using MSE, MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and R². The results indicated that all models experienced performance degradation during testing, suggesting overfitting and limited generalization capability. The testing RMSE values for ACO, BPNN, XGBoost, and the hybrid model were 108.41, 109.33, 109.21, and 106.08 mm, respectively. The corresponding testing MAPE values were 2836.5%, 2900.5%, 2073.9%, and 2602.2%, although these values should be interpreted cautiously because rainfall observations occasionally approached zero. While the hybrid model achieved the lowest testing RMSE, the improvement over the best individual model was modest, and all testing R² values remained negative, indicating weak generalization capability. Therefore, the findings should be regarded as preliminary, and further validation using larger datasets, exogenous climatic predictors, baseline forecasting methods, and more rigorous evaluation procedures is required.
The Effect of Digital Fatigue and Emotional Regulation on Mathematical Problem-Solving Skills Istikatunisah; Syaharuddin; Abdillah; Wasim Raza; Sunday Emmanuel Fadugba
Formatif : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan MIPA Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026): Formatif: Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan MIPA
Publisher : Universitas Indraprasta PGRI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30998/formatif.v16i1.1990

Abstract

Mathematical problem-solving skills are an important component of mathematics learning because they require concentration, accuracy, and emotional control. In technology-based learning environments, intensive use of digital devices may lead to digital fatigue, which can reduce students’ focus, while emotional regulation is considered an important factor that helps students maintain cognitive stability during learning. This study aimed to examine the effect of digital fatigue and emotional regulation on students’ mathematical problem-solving skills. The study employed a quantitative approach with a correlational research design. The sample consisted of 34 eleventh-grade students selected using a total sampling technique. Data on digital fatigue and emotional regulation were collected using Likert-scale questionnaires, while mathematical problem-solving skills were measured through descriptive test items. The data were analyzed using multiple linear regression after meeting the required statistical assumptions. The results showed that digital fatigue and emotional regulation did not have a significant effect on students’ mathematical problem-solving skills. The R² value of 0.023 indicates that the two variables explain only 2.3% of the variance in problem-solving skills. This result may be due to the fact that mathematical problem-solving is more strongly influenced by cognitive factors such as conceptual understanding, reasoning ability, and learning strategies rather than psychological fatigue factors alone. Therefore, future research is recommended to include additional variables such as learning motivation, cognitive strategies, and instructional quality. Practically, teachers are encouraged to strengthen conceptual understanding and problem-solving strategies while maintaining students’ psychological well-being in digital learning environments.
Co-Authors Istikatunisah Mahsup Safaruddin Sunday Emmanuel Fadugba Syaharuddin Vera Mandailina Wasim Raza