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All Journal Journal of Economics, Business, & Accountancy Ventura
Inggrita Gusti Sari Nasution
Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan, Indonesia
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Economic Globalization and Fertility Rate: Evidence from Leading Export-Oriented Provinces in Indonesia Inggrita Gusti Sari Nasution; Ahmad Albar Tanjung; Muhammad Syafii
Journal of Economics, Business, & Accountancy Ventura Vol. 28 No. 2 (2025): August 2025
Publisher : Research Center and Community Services (PPPM)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14414/jebav.v28i2.5737

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between economic globalization and fertility in Indonesia’s 14 major exporting provinces during 2021–2025. Using a balanced panel dataset of 70 observations, the model is estimated through the Random Effect Model with the Panel EGLS Cross-section Random Effects method. Fertility Rate (FER) serves as the dependent variable. At the same time, Women in Higher Education (WHE), Female Labor Employment (FLE), Family Development Index (FAM), Child Care (CLD), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Trade Openness (TO), and Labor Leave Regulation (REG) are explanatory variables. The findings reveal that WHE, CLD, and TO significantly reduce FER, while FDI, FAM, and REG show weaker significance. FLE is not statistically significant. The positive WHE*REG interaction indicates that labor leave regulation attenuates the negative effect of women’s higher education on fertility, highlighting the need for stronger maternity leave policies and interministerial policy synergy. These results highlight the necessity of institutional alignment between trade-led economic expansion and social policies, suggesting that expanding maternity benefits and standardizing interministerial policy governance are essential for maintaining demographic sustainability in rapidly globalizing developing economies.
Co-Authors Ahmad Albar Tanjung Muhammad Syafii