This Author published in this journals
All Journal GSE-journal
Luca Marchetti
Laboratory of Computational Modeling, Department of Cellular, Computational and Integrative Biology, University of Trento

Published : 1 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 1 Documents
Search

A Mathematical Model for Predicting Complex Dynamic Systems Using Hybrid Computational Approaches George Em Karniadakis; Elena Torfs; Luca Marchetti
Global Synthesis in Education Journal Vol. 3 No. 5 (2026): Vol. 3 No. 5 (2026): Vol. 3 No. 5 (2026): July 2026
Publisher : Mutiara Intelektual Indonesia Press

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61667/j3am6077

Abstract

Hybrid computational models can improve prediction when governing equations are incomplete, but their advantages are often evaluated on isolated systems and without simultaneous assessment of accuracy, stability, interpretability, and uncertainty. This study develops a modular hybrid mathematical model that combines a partially specified ordinary differential equation, a regularized neural residual, joint parameter calibration, physical constraints, and ensemble-based uncertainty quantification. The framework was evaluated through in silico experiments on five benchmark systems representing periodic, chaotic, stiff, ecological, and engineering dynamics: Van der Pol, Lorenz-63, Robertson kinetics, Lotka–Volterra, and a continuous stirred-tank reactor. Six hundred trajectories were generated using space-filling sampling, partitioned at the trajectory level, and tested under interpolation, extrapolation, measurement noise, data scarcity, and partial observability. The proposed model was compared with an incomplete mechanistic model, a neural ordinary differential equation, and sequential residual correction. In illustrative synthetic results, the hybrid model achieved a mean normalized root-mean-square error of 0.0678, reducing error by 37.3% relative to the strongest baseline. It also increased the mean time to divergence to 83.6% of the forecast horizon, reduced median mechanistic parameter error to 4.8%, limited physical-constraint violations to 0.6%, and attained 0.947 coverage for nominal 95% prediction intervals. Friedman and Holm-adjusted Wilcoxon tests indicated significant paired improvements with large effect sizes. Ablation analyses showed that residual regularization, physical constraints, and joint calibration each contributed materially. These findings illustrate how restricted data-driven correction can enhance heterogeneous dynamical-system prediction while preserving mechanistic meaning, although empirical execution and external validation are required before scientific claims are made